Betfair Official Blog

The French Connection

7 March 2008

1. Back Bristol City against Leicester @ [2.9]
2. Back Nottingham Forest @ [2.02] against Crewe
3. Back Stockport @ [1.96] against Bradford

With only one other top-four team in action this weekend, Bristol City have the chance to extend their lead at the head of the Championship table - and they offer a good deal of value to kick off our treble when they visit Leicester City.

With West Brom in FA Cup action, Watford without a game and Stoke facing a tricky home game against away-day specialists Burnley, City could move six points clear at the summit.

Very much the surprise package of the division, Gary Johnson's side have not fallen by the wayside as many people thought they might. In fact, the tougher it has got, the more they've got going.

Look at their last four games - their undoubted commitment and never-say-die attitude has turned potentially one point into eight. They trailed at Charlton on Tuesday and came back to draw; prior to that they saw Hull equalise but fought back to beat them, rallied from 1-0 down to win 2-1 at Colchester, and salvaged a last-gasp point in a live game with Crystal Palace.

Their threat at set-pieces is evidenced by the fact central defender Jamie McCombe has scored three goals in four games, while big striker Dele Adebola has netted two in his last three.

Goals are in short supply for Leicester though. They have drawn a blank in four of their last seven games and have lost five of those fixtures. Two of the last three games at the Walkers Stadium have ended in defeat.

It's not often that any leader of a division will offer such a plump price as that available to back the Robins this weekend - so get on at [2.9]!

The League One promotion battle took a significant twist on Monday when Carlisle won at Nottingham Forest, who are now five points adrift of the top three.

Forest are in real danger of missing out on automatic promotion, but they are presented with the ideal opportunity to bounce straight back when they visit a Crewe side this weekend which is enduring a miserable run.

The Alex have not won any of their last five games at Gresty Road, contributing to a sequence of just one win in 11 outings. Goals are also in very short supply: Crewe have netted a mere six times in that 11-game patch.

Monday's defeat was only Forest's second at home this season - the last time they were beaten at the City Ground, they responded by going eight league games without defeat.

Although Crewe are only just above the relegation zone, they are actually 10 points clear of the drop - and none of the bottom three are showing any signs of bridging that gap. Therefore, Forest's need is greater, and that coupled with the knowledge they must bounce back and set off on a run that allows them to close the gap on the top three, makes them part two of the treble and I'm on Forest at [2.02].

Any team that has won 11 away games ought to be in an automatic promotion place - I say ought to be, because that statement relies upon their home form being equally good. In the case of Stockport, home hasn't been where the heart is.

The Hatters have only won five games at Edgeley Park in the league this season, and their push for promotion in League Two is built largely around their form on the road: seven consecutive away victories have kept them in the thick of the battle.

However, their overall home record hides a recent revival in fortunes: they have lost just once on their home turf in the last seven outings. Furthermore, despite a poor record at Edgeley Park, they have not failed to score there in any game this season.

This weekend's visitors Bradford are inconsistent: they followed a victory over promotion-chasing Rotherham with a home defeat at the hands of struggling Dagenham and Redbridge. If Stockport are going to get their home form rolling to build on their excellent away record, this is exactly the sort of game they have to win and I'm on Stockport at [1.96] .

Therefore, the French Connection treble this weekend is backing Bristol City (at [2.9]), Nottingham Forest (at [2.02]) and Stockport (at [1.96]) - that should pay around the [11.48] mark.