Betfair Official Blog

The French Connection

29 February 2008

1. Lay Blackpool at [4.3]
2. Back Brighton at [2.0]
3. Back Lincoln at [2.6]
£10 @ [7.8]

The fact Norwich are seven points off a play-off place is not particularly impressive in itself - but when you consider where they were when Glenn Roeder became manager, you realise the former West Ham and Newcastle boss has turned their season around.

Roeder took charge at Carrow Road at the end of October with the Canaries rooted to the bottom of the table, three points adrift and having won just two of their first 12 games.

The transformation wasn't immediate, but Roeder has quietly guided Norwich well away from danger and, such is their current run, he could easily steer them into the top six. They have lost just one of their last 15 games and are unbeaten at home in 10 outings.

I'd be all for backing them to beat this weekend's visitors, Blackpool, if they didn't have such a high draw ratio. Half of those 10 undefeated games at Carrow Road have ended all square.

However, I cannot see Blackpool winning, despite their impressive 5-3 beating of promotion-chasing Charlton last weekend.

The Seasiders won at Leicester on the opening day of the season, but have managed just two victories in the 16 trips away from Bloomfield Road since then - and they came at struggling Colchester and Preston.

Norwich's excellent current form makes them unopposable in my opinion, but because they do have that tendency to draw, I'm suggesting laying Blackpool at [4.3].

It's very rare to have a sequence of four consecutive home games, but that is what Brighton will complete when they host Leyton Orient in League One this weekend.

They have taken seven points from the previous three and that has put them within sight of the play-off places - victory against Orient could leave them just four points off the top six.

The Seagulls splashed out £300,000 on striker Glenn Murray from Rochdale at the end of the January transfer window and he has immediately weighed in with four goals in six outings, including the winner against Oldham last week.

Orient have promotion aspirations of their own after making a flying start to the season: 16 points from the opening six games put them at the head of affairs.

However, they have slipped down the table since then, and have won only one of their last seven games - at Luton, who are plummeting rapidly towards League Two. That was their only away success since November 24th, and in their last eight trips on the road they have scored just four times.

With the home team having conceded just a solitary goal in their last six hours of football at the Withdean, I fancy the Seagulls to take a step nearer the top six and I'm backing Brighton at [2.0] .
Despite their many failings, footballers are only human - and so the players of Lincoln City are bound to want to give manager Peter Jackson the ideal send-off this weekend before he begins cancer treatment.

The Imps boss announced earlier this month that he was to undergo treatment for the illness, and this weekend's home game with Wycombe Wanderers at Sincil Bank will be his last before assistant Iffy Onoura takes temporary charge.

City slipped up 3-2 at promotion-chasing Rotherham last week, but they were holding their own at 1-1 until Mark Stallard was sent off in the 64th-minute, and the home side took the lead within 60 seconds.

Prior to that defeat, Lincoln had won five consecutive games.

There is no doubting Wycombe's recent away form is also impressive: five wins and two draws in seven games. However, they can throw in the odd stinker: home defeats in the last month to struggling Mansfield and Dagenham & Redbridge are evidence of that.

I think Lincoln will go all out to make sure Jackson can go away and concentrate on his health issues in the best frame of mind, and so I'm backing Lincoln at [2.6] to end Wycombe's away-day run.

Therefore, the French Connection treble is laying Blackpool at [4.3], backing Brighton at [2.0] and backing Lincoln at [2.6] - that should pay around the [7.8] mark.