Ken v Boris Betting: A battle of political masterminds
Will this just be the most entertaining election for many a year, or is there actually some bite in this 'political dog'? Chickendinner investigates...
This has turned out to be a vintage year for political drama, thanks mainly to the efforts in America of Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama to turn the race for the Democratic nomination to into a celebrity death match. While that contest prepares for a probable grand finale at the Democratic Convention in the summer, attention turns in the UK to the slightly less intense spectacle of Ken Livingstone vs Boris Johnson in the race to be next mayor of London.
A piece in the Financial Times a few weeks ago suggested that the Conservative Party's objective for this election was for its candidate, Boris Johnson, to perform outstandingly well yet lose by a nose. The party wanted to send a clear message to their Labour opponents that they were again capable of standing toe-to-toe with them at the ballot box, and that after years in the wilderness they had been reborn as a political force. However, they didn't want their candidate to do so well as to actually win the vote, and risk demolishing their hard work with his trademark, headline-grabbing buffoonery and insensitivity.
As things stand, it seems the Tories are going to get their wish, as Boris Johnson trails Mayor Livingstone in the betting, but only by a whisker. Boris is [2.06] to win on Betfair, Ken is [1.97]. With the election still several weeks away on May 1, these prices have yet to reflect any serious, high profile campaigning on the part of either candidate. While neither has yet taken the opportunity to share their thoughts at length on how best to run the capital over the next four years, both have still been filling column inches with other activities, which go some way to explaining the closeness of these prices.
In a normal world, a candidate such as Boris Johnson, who for all his intelligence, charisma and debating ability never fails to go that extra mile to antagonise and insult the electorate, would be taken no more seriously than Chris Prior of the Stop Congestion Charging Party (currently 130.0 on Betfair, FYI). Yet thanks to the honk of corruption and cronyism issuing from the Livingstone administration, Johnson is within touching distance in the betting markets.
Livingstone's woes stem from the activities of his former race relations aide Lee Jasper, who quit last week following the publication of sexual emails which he sent to a woman whose projects received six-figure grants from the Greater London Authority on Mr Jasper's say so. A fraud investigation has been launched into a string of projects linked to Mr Jasper, and two people have so far been arrested. Mr Johnson has yet to make any serious political capital from the fiasco, and while he may be wise to stand back and let the stain spread where it will, his own major foray into the papers over the past week has been on the eccentric matter of his supposed descent from a slave.
"I want you to know that my great-great-grandmother was a slave, so put that in your pipe and smoke it, Mr Livingstone," was his comment, which brought an avalanche of press while being of no discernible benefit to his campaign. This seems to be one of Mr Johnson's signature campaign techniques.
As the clock ticks down to polling day, both candidates will be forced to sharpen their positions on the key issues (London voters claimed transportation, policing and health were their three most pressing concerns, although health is not much of a local government concern.) Yet two major intangibles have already inserted themselves into the process - the graft that remains to be uncovered in City Hall and the gun-to-foot utterances that Mr Johnson is yet to make.
Hyde Park Corner
Links
Voter Test - don't know who to vote for or bet on? This will help you decide by aligning your views with a candidate.
Mayoral Debate - Newsnight 08/04/2008
BBC - London Mayoral Election homepage
Evening Standard - London Mayoral Election homepage
London Elects - A complete guide to the election
UK Polling Report - For the latest polls on the election
Ken Livingstone - Official campaign website
Boris Johnson - Official campaign website
Brian Paddick - Official campaign website
REGISTER TO VOTE - Informaion on how to go about it
Dates
2nd May - Election count and results announced
1st May - Election day, voters go to the polls (having placed their bets on Betfair!)
23rd April - Last day for proxy vote applications
16th April - Last day for voter registration and postal vote applications
28th March - Deadline for candidates' nominations
How it works
Voting takes place on 1st May and the counting is the following day. The supplementary vote system is used for the Mayoral Election, so it is different from the normal general election voting system most of us are used to.
Under this system voters express their first choice candidate and then a second choice. To win, any candidate needs to receive over 50% of the vote.
If no candidate receives 50% of first choice votes, the top two candidates go to a second round. Voters whose first choice has been eliminated but whose second choice is one of the top two candidates will have their second preference vote added to the first-round totals.
This gives a result whereby the winning candidate has the support of the majority. For more information on the way the Mayor is elected click here.
Vote for Boris but back Ken - then it's a win win situation!
1 May 2008
We've forgotten the weather here - it's going to be a massive factor. Just seen the forecast and it's rain all the way. How many of the 'Can't Be Arsed' brigade will that keep indoors? I reckon plenty and that means BoJo voters will not be out in strength. Ken is still in it and I've had a nibble at 3.2 - ridiculous odds given his winning record.
29 April 2008
Brian Paddick holds the key to this election. Good Old Bri is no politcian but who will his loyal (and blimey they'd have to be loyal!)supporters give their second preference votes to? I reckon it will be to Boris - Lib Dems, bless 'em all, seem to vote on principles for some reason and I think Ken has too many skeletons in his closet to be a consideration. So get on Boris.
29 April 2008
Boris is on the charge - 1.46 now. Can anything stop him? Maybe worth a lay on Thursday morning if he is sub-1.4 ahead of exit poll favourables for Ken?
29 April 2008
Ken is a sleazed-up waste of time. We need a change and a new direction, and although Boris wouldn't be my number one choice to carry the torch anew he'll have to do. I am so much more optimistic about Mayor Johnson than I am about the current joke - the only thing Ken should be an incumbent of is prison.
29 April 2008
As long as he brings free food he's always welcome in Lambeth...
29 April 2008
What's that saying? Beware of Greeks bearing gifts? I don't know whether that applies to MPs from Henley offering doughnuts but bloody hell - beware, beware, beware!! Come on, London - wake up! Boris is still 1.6. If he wins, I'm leaving - will the last one out , please turn off the lights!
28 April 2008
Boris is making the mistakes but Ken isn't capitalising yet. Is it because his current abode is made of too much glass? This election looks like a Boris win simply because Ken isn't getting fired up about it and people just can't bothered. I think the market's about right - low voter turnout and a Boris win (may the Good Lord help us all!).
25 April 2008
Dear Ken - where is the rabbit that you were going to pull out of the hat? Do it now before this buffoon does the unthinkable!!
I still think Boris is a lay - 1.6 is great value at this point because it's going to be close...
22 April 2008
2.8 is a massive price on Ken. Steam in before it's all gobbled up!
21 April 2008
I love the picture on this story. Ken looks a bit careworn and clueless (as he has done all the way through his campaign) but Boris has clearly been told: "The easiest way to keep your foot out of your mouth is to stuff your thumb in there instead"
To which Boris replied: "Yah, that's a great idea Mr Nameless-Advisor. I say, you don't know my old Nanny do you? She used to say something similar."
18 April 2008
"Ken has to keep sleaze on the outside"... Likely?!
18 April 2008
I don't think Boris can hold back much longer - he's said nothing, nadda, nowt. This last two weeks will definitely see him break rank, surely? Ken lies in wait. Lay Boris asap.
17 April 2008
oh dear not a good performance from Boris last night. ken is coming back. get on!!
16 April 2008
Is it really a good time to be laying Ken? Surely it's still too risky. Perhaps the overall feeling - excusing the cliche - is that it is just time for change, and what exactly that change is doesn't matter.
Saying that, having Mayor Johnson on the same platform as Mayor Bloomberg does scare me somewhat!
15 April 2008
Boris offers something completely different to Ken, and is not just some 'novelty factor' as you describe. True, he will have to do something, but if you look at half of what Ken has 'done' over the last term I'd rather it be Boris ballsing it up than him. Alas, maybe he'll even be bold?
Agree I'd get the money on Ken at the moment though as these odds will be evens again before too long.
14 April 2008
Everybody knows that Boris has the novelty factor. He's the quirky, dinner party option - "Boris is a breath of fresh air!" they shout - but when push comes to shove he's actually going to have to DO something and that we all know would be a disaster.
So I'd get my money on Ken - or at the odds currently offered, lay Boris - because Bozzer isn't going to be out front for much longer.
14 April 2008
Boris for Mayor!!
14 April 2008
Ken will win this, surely? Who is ACTUALLY going to vote for Boris? Ken might be a bit creepy and even a bit dodgy, but Boris...?! No.
11 April 2008
Love Ken's rant there, though to be fair he probably had a fair point. Those idiots at the GLA have been so spiteful about the whole thing. Frankly, they're as bad as each other and a bad representation of London and of what Londoners want.
Who to vote for? God knows.
11 April 2008
Wet cement or not, Ken is on the charge! He's come in to 7-4 from 9-4 today and Boris is drifting - now 4-7. Never doubted it would happen, London will finally come to its senses I reckon.
That Newsnight debate was a bit shambolic for everyone but Ken - Boris mumbled and couldn't come up with any real facts (he's not a bad performance though) while Paddick was hopeless. Ken was just solid, nothing spectacular, but then he's the one there to be shot at so pretty good overall.
9 April 2008
We all know the Olympics are going to cost a fortune - so what? It's going to be a great event and Londoners shouyld be glad we've got it. I don't hear Boris piping up and saying we shouldn't have the Olympics - why? Because we all want it, no matter how much a vocal few shout and moan. Boris couldn't organise his way out of a paper bag - the only reasonable choice, Olympics or otherwise, is Ken (even if he's about as active in this election as a bag of wet cement).
9 April 2008
I knew it - Ken's employing computer hackers!! I think we've got him running scared.
But blimey! Is that the best he's got?!?! What about policies, Kenneth? What about reaching out to Londoners and offering them something new?
The answer is KL is MIA or AWOL, or maybe he's just filling his face at KFC!! Whatever the case, Boris has got this sewn up.
8 April 2008
Shouldn't the title of 'most-hard-done-by' go to the London public for having two sub-standard excuses for human beings to choose from to be their Mayor?!
8 April 2008
The latest debate was last night on Newsnight: http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_4670000/newsid_4679900/4679986.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1&bbcws=1
9 April 2008
I think there is a TV debate planned for the 21st on ITV - will Ken even bother to turn out?? It seems he's given up and allowing the blonde 'headed' one a free run at it. C'mon Ken, you can do better than this current lily-livered effort!
8 April 2008
Is there not a telvised debate planned sometime in the next few weeks? If not I'd be shocked and, frankly, disappointed. How are Londoners like myself supposed to make their decisions when all we hear about are the individual candidates making a mess of themselves? When are we going to hear about the issues?
Frankly I'd rather not have any of them.
8 April 2008
Congestion charge... 20mph speed limits... What next? Square wheels?
7 April 2008
Boris will surely make many more blunders before the campaign is over, whether or not Labour start to take him seriously. It should certainly get interesting nearer the time but at [1.5] he is miles too short for me, a lay if anything.
7 April 2008
Is Ken's 'secrets' closet now empty? I'm amazed he's managed to keep that under wraps for so long - will he be coming out with the 'Vote Ken - it's not for me, it's for the children' line? Surely he needs this job more than Boris now?
7 April 2008
Damn right, vote Boris!!
10 April 2008
Finally Ken can stop doing the hard work for Boris by shooting HIMSELF in the foot
7 April 2008
Describing Ken Livingstone as "a maverick craftsman of social policy" makes me want to barf
7 April 2008