Ken v Boris: A fightback from the Red corner
After a week spent entirely on the defensive, Ken Livingstone begins to shake off a nasty bout of scandal fatigue and mount a counter-attack to Boris Johnson's flying start, but out of the blue, one of his worst enemies pops up to offer a helping hand. The betting markets fail to smile on his efforts.
So, Ken is currently at [2.9] on Betfair to win the election, while Boris is way ahead at [1.6]. This gap was opened by national general election polls showing a huge swing to the Tories in the aftermath of the dreariest budget in living memory, and was widened by the first mayoral poll in March giving Johnson a 12-point lead. This is quite a bombshell for Livingstone - not even the Tory party expected Johnson to be having it this easy this early on.
Not surprisingly, given that he was expecting the imbecile Johnson to be a pushover, Ken Livingstone has now become obsessed with him. When news first broke that Johnson was running for London mayor, Livingstone was caught in a photo only two days later struggling through Boris' biography on the tube. Then in January of this year Livingstone wrote a piece for the Guardian where Boris was rubbished almost every other paragraph. And much of his campaign launch address at the Royal Festival Hall last Tuesday consisted of personal attacks like "Boris Johnson couldn't be bothered ... Boris Johnson dismissed my attempt ... Boris Johnson now wishes to abolish ... Boris Johnson doesn't recognise..."
Week after week of allegations of corruption and cronyism have poisoned the national media's view of the City Hall regime, but Livingstone now also has to cope with his old enemy Gordon Brown clapping him on the back. The Prime Minister came out in the Evening Standard on Thursday and officially endorsed Livingstone as "the only choice".
Martin Ivens, writing in the Sunday Times this week on the depth of their mutual loathing, claimed, "It was a sign of desperate times last week that the prime minister ended one of the most bitter feuds in Labour history by sharing a platform with his old enemy. He is "an inspirational figure in London, a crusading mayor and one who has made a difference", said Brown. This reconciliation brings to mind the Low cartoon of Hitler's 1939 pact with Stalin. The Nazi dictator hails his new friend: 'The scum of the earth, I believe?' The Soviet tyrant returns the greeting: 'The bloody assassin of the workers, I presume?'"
To refresh your memory, on January 19, 2000, Gordon Brown wrote a passionate article in the Standard, headlined "Livingstone must not be London mayor," a position he is happy to flip-flop on now that he and his Labour oligarchs have seen the threat Johnson poses to the PM's hold to power (you can't govern Britain successfully if your party has been kicked out of both Edinburgh and London). Voters may be less thrilled by their making nice - as if having the Labour tag weren't bad enough, Ken now has the millstone of a wretchedly unpopular PM around his neck.
In a keynote speech setting out his manifesto in Richmond on Friday, Livingstone challenged the "tired and out-of-date" label Johnson is pinning on him by responding with a glut of policies that have a strong emphasis on the environment. His pledges included £500 million worth of new commuter routes into the City for cyclists, and an ambitious energy plan designed to take away supply from the National Grid. There was a generous amount of Boris-baiting too.
The speech has put Ken back in his element - as a maverick craftsman of social policy. Even Johnson admits the race is more even than polls suggest: "King Newt can be defeated but he is well entrenched". But the policy skirmish also presents a paradox: the more Livingstone attacks Mr Johnson, the more he shows how formidable his rival has become since his days as a figure of fun.
Hyde Park Corner
Links
Voter Test - don't know who to vote for or bet on? This will help you decide by aligning your views with a candidate.
Mayoral Debate - Newsnight 08/04/2008
BBC - London Mayoral Election homepage
Evening Standard - London Mayoral Election homepage
London Elects - A complete guide to the election
UK Polling Report - For the latest polls on the election
Ken Livingstone - Official campaign website
Boris Johnson - Official campaign website
Brian Paddick - Official campaign website
REGISTER TO VOTE - Informaion on how to go about it
Dates
2nd May - Election count and results announced
1st May - Election day, voters go to the polls (having placed their bets on Betfair!)
23rd April - Last day for proxy vote applications
16th April - Last day for voter registration and postal vote applications
28th March - Deadline for candidates' nominations
How it works
Voting takes place on 1st May and the counting is the following day. The supplementary vote system is used for the Mayoral Election, so it is different from the normal general election voting system most of us are used to.
Under this system voters express their first choice candidate and then a second choice. To win, any candidate needs to receive over 50% of the vote.
If no candidate receives 50% of first choice votes, the top two candidates go to a second round. Voters whose first choice has been eliminated but whose second choice is one of the top two candidates will have their second preference vote added to the first-round totals.
This gives a result whereby the winning candidate has the support of the majority. For more information on the way the Mayor is elected click here.
Vote for Boris but back Ken - then it's a win win situation!
1 May 2008
We've forgotten the weather here - it's going to be a massive factor. Just seen the forecast and it's rain all the way. How many of the 'Can't Be Arsed' brigade will that keep indoors? I reckon plenty and that means BoJo voters will not be out in strength. Ken is still in it and I've had a nibble at 3.2 - ridiculous odds given his winning record.
29 April 2008
Brian Paddick holds the key to this election. Good Old Bri is no politcian but who will his loyal (and blimey they'd have to be loyal!)supporters give their second preference votes to? I reckon it will be to Boris - Lib Dems, bless 'em all, seem to vote on principles for some reason and I think Ken has too many skeletons in his closet to be a consideration. So get on Boris.
29 April 2008
Boris is on the charge - 1.46 now. Can anything stop him? Maybe worth a lay on Thursday morning if he is sub-1.4 ahead of exit poll favourables for Ken?
29 April 2008
Ken is a sleazed-up waste of time. We need a change and a new direction, and although Boris wouldn't be my number one choice to carry the torch anew he'll have to do. I am so much more optimistic about Mayor Johnson than I am about the current joke - the only thing Ken should be an incumbent of is prison.
29 April 2008
As long as he brings free food he's always welcome in Lambeth...
29 April 2008
What's that saying? Beware of Greeks bearing gifts? I don't know whether that applies to MPs from Henley offering doughnuts but bloody hell - beware, beware, beware!! Come on, London - wake up! Boris is still 1.6. If he wins, I'm leaving - will the last one out , please turn off the lights!
28 April 2008
Boris is making the mistakes but Ken isn't capitalising yet. Is it because his current abode is made of too much glass? This election looks like a Boris win simply because Ken isn't getting fired up about it and people just can't bothered. I think the market's about right - low voter turnout and a Boris win (may the Good Lord help us all!).
25 April 2008
Dear Ken - where is the rabbit that you were going to pull out of the hat? Do it now before this buffoon does the unthinkable!!
I still think Boris is a lay - 1.6 is great value at this point because it's going to be close...
22 April 2008
2.8 is a massive price on Ken. Steam in before it's all gobbled up!
21 April 2008
I love the picture on this story. Ken looks a bit careworn and clueless (as he has done all the way through his campaign) but Boris has clearly been told: "The easiest way to keep your foot out of your mouth is to stuff your thumb in there instead"
To which Boris replied: "Yah, that's a great idea Mr Nameless-Advisor. I say, you don't know my old Nanny do you? She used to say something similar."
18 April 2008
"Ken has to keep sleaze on the outside"... Likely?!
18 April 2008
I don't think Boris can hold back much longer - he's said nothing, nadda, nowt. This last two weeks will definitely see him break rank, surely? Ken lies in wait. Lay Boris asap.
17 April 2008
oh dear not a good performance from Boris last night. ken is coming back. get on!!
16 April 2008
Is it really a good time to be laying Ken? Surely it's still too risky. Perhaps the overall feeling - excusing the cliche - is that it is just time for change, and what exactly that change is doesn't matter.
Saying that, having Mayor Johnson on the same platform as Mayor Bloomberg does scare me somewhat!
15 April 2008
Boris offers something completely different to Ken, and is not just some 'novelty factor' as you describe. True, he will have to do something, but if you look at half of what Ken has 'done' over the last term I'd rather it be Boris ballsing it up than him. Alas, maybe he'll even be bold?
Agree I'd get the money on Ken at the moment though as these odds will be evens again before too long.
14 April 2008
Everybody knows that Boris has the novelty factor. He's the quirky, dinner party option - "Boris is a breath of fresh air!" they shout - but when push comes to shove he's actually going to have to DO something and that we all know would be a disaster.
So I'd get my money on Ken - or at the odds currently offered, lay Boris - because Bozzer isn't going to be out front for much longer.
14 April 2008
Boris for Mayor!!
14 April 2008
Ken will win this, surely? Who is ACTUALLY going to vote for Boris? Ken might be a bit creepy and even a bit dodgy, but Boris...?! No.
11 April 2008
Love Ken's rant there, though to be fair he probably had a fair point. Those idiots at the GLA have been so spiteful about the whole thing. Frankly, they're as bad as each other and a bad representation of London and of what Londoners want.
Who to vote for? God knows.
11 April 2008
Wet cement or not, Ken is on the charge! He's come in to 7-4 from 9-4 today and Boris is drifting - now 4-7. Never doubted it would happen, London will finally come to its senses I reckon.
That Newsnight debate was a bit shambolic for everyone but Ken - Boris mumbled and couldn't come up with any real facts (he's not a bad performance though) while Paddick was hopeless. Ken was just solid, nothing spectacular, but then he's the one there to be shot at so pretty good overall.
9 April 2008
We all know the Olympics are going to cost a fortune - so what? It's going to be a great event and Londoners shouyld be glad we've got it. I don't hear Boris piping up and saying we shouldn't have the Olympics - why? Because we all want it, no matter how much a vocal few shout and moan. Boris couldn't organise his way out of a paper bag - the only reasonable choice, Olympics or otherwise, is Ken (even if he's about as active in this election as a bag of wet cement).
9 April 2008
I knew it - Ken's employing computer hackers!! I think we've got him running scared.
But blimey! Is that the best he's got?!?! What about policies, Kenneth? What about reaching out to Londoners and offering them something new?
The answer is KL is MIA or AWOL, or maybe he's just filling his face at KFC!! Whatever the case, Boris has got this sewn up.
8 April 2008
Shouldn't the title of 'most-hard-done-by' go to the London public for having two sub-standard excuses for human beings to choose from to be their Mayor?!
8 April 2008
The latest debate was last night on Newsnight: http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_4670000/newsid_4679900/4679986.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1&bbcws=1
9 April 2008
I think there is a TV debate planned for the 21st on ITV - will Ken even bother to turn out?? It seems he's given up and allowing the blonde 'headed' one a free run at it. C'mon Ken, you can do better than this current lily-livered effort!
8 April 2008
Is there not a telvised debate planned sometime in the next few weeks? If not I'd be shocked and, frankly, disappointed. How are Londoners like myself supposed to make their decisions when all we hear about are the individual candidates making a mess of themselves? When are we going to hear about the issues?
Frankly I'd rather not have any of them.
8 April 2008
Congestion charge... 20mph speed limits... What next? Square wheels?
7 April 2008
Boris will surely make many more blunders before the campaign is over, whether or not Labour start to take him seriously. It should certainly get interesting nearer the time but at [1.5] he is miles too short for me, a lay if anything.
7 April 2008
Is Ken's 'secrets' closet now empty? I'm amazed he's managed to keep that under wraps for so long - will he be coming out with the 'Vote Ken - it's not for me, it's for the children' line? Surely he needs this job more than Boris now?
7 April 2008
Damn right, vote Boris!!
10 April 2008
Finally Ken can stop doing the hard work for Boris by shooting HIMSELF in the foot
7 April 2008
Describing Ken Livingstone as "a maverick craftsman of social policy" makes me want to barf
7 April 2008