Boris and Ken skirmish for title of most-hard-done-by
A day of little activity, some low grade complaining, and a big shift in the betting
The first big discovery of this election - it's the polls that are shifting the betting markets. Ken and Boris might as well have been entombed in ice for the last 24 hours, so inconspicuous have their movements been, yet the Betfair markets have been abuzz - Boris has shortened to [1.43], his shortest price yet, Ken has disappeared into outer space at [3.35].
The only event of any significance to have provoked this dramatic realignment has been the publication of a new poll, conducted by online pollsters YouGov on behalf of the Evening Standard, and which gives Boris Johnson a 13-point lead over Ken Livingstone, his biggest yet.
But punter beware - polls do not always paint the most dependable vision of the future. They have been shown to be routinely flawed to the point of absurdity in the US election, while a poll conducted for the Guardian just last week showed the mayoral candidates separated by a single percentage point. The Evening Standard poll during the same period showed the gap at 11 per cent.
Not surprisingly, Mayor Livingstone has no time for these silly calculations, and his campaign office announced it was lauching an official complaint against YouGov, accusing them of "flawed methodology" and misleading the public. YouGov said it would defend itself against any complaints.
In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph, however, Boris Johnson claimed that he, and not Ken, was the real victim of outrageous political manoeuvering in this election. He claimed his computers were hacked last week and his email penetrated. "They brought the system down for three hours," he said. "The technicians said whoever did it was determined to get to us."
He also accused his opponents of "fighting dirty" to cling on to power. "They are doing blatant misrepresentations of our position, absolutely ruthlessly going around lying about what we are offering. They are literally going round houses knocking on the door and lying."
A spokesman for the Livingstone campaign laconically responded, "Boris Johnson uniquely claims it is a smear to quote what he actually said."
Ken, on the other hand, seemed to be preparing for battle at last. "Boris is the most formidable opponent I've faced," he said, before relaxing back on his chaise longue and enjoying a grape. "The only real thing he's ever managed is a small Right-wing magazine, where the most difficult decision was where to take the staff for lunch."
Comments (2)
Shouldn't the title of 'most-hard-done-by' go to the London public for having two sub-standard excuses for human beings to choose from to be their Mayor?!
Don't Patronise Me | 08 April 2008
I knew it - Ken's employing computer hackers!! I think we've got him running scared.
But blimey! Is that the best he's got?!?! What about policies, Kenneth? What about reaching out to Londoners and offering them something new?
The answer is KL is MIA or AWOL, or maybe he's just filling his face at KFC!! Whatever the case, Boris has got this sewn up.
Tory Boy | 08 April 2008
Hyde Park Corner
Links
Voter Test - don't know who to vote for or bet on? This will help you decide by aligning your views with a candidate.
Mayoral Debate - Newsnight 08/04/2008
BBC - London Mayoral Election homepage
Evening Standard - London Mayoral Election homepage
London Elects - A complete guide to the election
UK Polling Report - For the latest polls on the election
Ken Livingstone - Official campaign website
Boris Johnson - Official campaign website
Brian Paddick - Official campaign website
REGISTER TO VOTE - Informaion on how to go about it
Dates
2nd May - Election count and results announced
1st May - Election day, voters go to the polls (having placed their bets on Betfair!)
23rd April - Last day for proxy vote applications
16th April - Last day for voter registration and postal vote applications
28th March - Deadline for candidates' nominations
How it works
Voting takes place on 1st May and the counting is the following day. The supplementary vote system is used for the Mayoral Election, so it is different from the normal general election voting system most of us are used to.
Under this system voters express their first choice candidate and then a second choice. To win, any candidate needs to receive over 50% of the vote.
If no candidate receives 50% of first choice votes, the top two candidates go to a second round. Voters whose first choice has been eliminated but whose second choice is one of the top two candidates will have their second preference vote added to the first-round totals.
This gives a result whereby the winning candidate has the support of the majority. For more information on the way the Mayor is elected click here.
Vote for Boris but back Ken - then it's a win win situation!
1 May 2008
We've forgotten the weather here - it's going to be a massive factor. Just seen the forecast and it's rain all the way. How many of the 'Can't Be Arsed' brigade will that keep indoors? I reckon plenty and that means BoJo voters will not be out in strength. Ken is still in it and I've had a nibble at 3.2 - ridiculous odds given his winning record.
29 April 2008
Brian Paddick holds the key to this election. Good Old Bri is no politcian but who will his loyal (and blimey they'd have to be loyal!)supporters give their second preference votes to? I reckon it will be to Boris - Lib Dems, bless 'em all, seem to vote on principles for some reason and I think Ken has too many skeletons in his closet to be a consideration. So get on Boris.
29 April 2008
Boris is on the charge - 1.46 now. Can anything stop him? Maybe worth a lay on Thursday morning if he is sub-1.4 ahead of exit poll favourables for Ken?
29 April 2008
Ken is a sleazed-up waste of time. We need a change and a new direction, and although Boris wouldn't be my number one choice to carry the torch anew he'll have to do. I am so much more optimistic about Mayor Johnson than I am about the current joke - the only thing Ken should be an incumbent of is prison.
29 April 2008
As long as he brings free food he's always welcome in Lambeth...
29 April 2008
What's that saying? Beware of Greeks bearing gifts? I don't know whether that applies to MPs from Henley offering doughnuts but bloody hell - beware, beware, beware!! Come on, London - wake up! Boris is still 1.6. If he wins, I'm leaving - will the last one out , please turn off the lights!
28 April 2008
Boris is making the mistakes but Ken isn't capitalising yet. Is it because his current abode is made of too much glass? This election looks like a Boris win simply because Ken isn't getting fired up about it and people just can't bothered. I think the market's about right - low voter turnout and a Boris win (may the Good Lord help us all!).
25 April 2008
Dear Ken - where is the rabbit that you were going to pull out of the hat? Do it now before this buffoon does the unthinkable!!
I still think Boris is a lay - 1.6 is great value at this point because it's going to be close...
22 April 2008
2.8 is a massive price on Ken. Steam in before it's all gobbled up!
21 April 2008
I love the picture on this story. Ken looks a bit careworn and clueless (as he has done all the way through his campaign) but Boris has clearly been told: "The easiest way to keep your foot out of your mouth is to stuff your thumb in there instead"
To which Boris replied: "Yah, that's a great idea Mr Nameless-Advisor. I say, you don't know my old Nanny do you? She used to say something similar."
18 April 2008
"Ken has to keep sleaze on the outside"... Likely?!
18 April 2008
I don't think Boris can hold back much longer - he's said nothing, nadda, nowt. This last two weeks will definitely see him break rank, surely? Ken lies in wait. Lay Boris asap.
17 April 2008
oh dear not a good performance from Boris last night. ken is coming back. get on!!
16 April 2008
Is it really a good time to be laying Ken? Surely it's still too risky. Perhaps the overall feeling - excusing the cliche - is that it is just time for change, and what exactly that change is doesn't matter.
Saying that, having Mayor Johnson on the same platform as Mayor Bloomberg does scare me somewhat!
15 April 2008
Boris offers something completely different to Ken, and is not just some 'novelty factor' as you describe. True, he will have to do something, but if you look at half of what Ken has 'done' over the last term I'd rather it be Boris ballsing it up than him. Alas, maybe he'll even be bold?
Agree I'd get the money on Ken at the moment though as these odds will be evens again before too long.
14 April 2008
Everybody knows that Boris has the novelty factor. He's the quirky, dinner party option - "Boris is a breath of fresh air!" they shout - but when push comes to shove he's actually going to have to DO something and that we all know would be a disaster.
So I'd get my money on Ken - or at the odds currently offered, lay Boris - because Bozzer isn't going to be out front for much longer.
14 April 2008
Boris for Mayor!!
14 April 2008
Ken will win this, surely? Who is ACTUALLY going to vote for Boris? Ken might be a bit creepy and even a bit dodgy, but Boris...?! No.
11 April 2008
Love Ken's rant there, though to be fair he probably had a fair point. Those idiots at the GLA have been so spiteful about the whole thing. Frankly, they're as bad as each other and a bad representation of London and of what Londoners want.
Who to vote for? God knows.
11 April 2008
Wet cement or not, Ken is on the charge! He's come in to 7-4 from 9-4 today and Boris is drifting - now 4-7. Never doubted it would happen, London will finally come to its senses I reckon.
That Newsnight debate was a bit shambolic for everyone but Ken - Boris mumbled and couldn't come up with any real facts (he's not a bad performance though) while Paddick was hopeless. Ken was just solid, nothing spectacular, but then he's the one there to be shot at so pretty good overall.
9 April 2008
We all know the Olympics are going to cost a fortune - so what? It's going to be a great event and Londoners shouyld be glad we've got it. I don't hear Boris piping up and saying we shouldn't have the Olympics - why? Because we all want it, no matter how much a vocal few shout and moan. Boris couldn't organise his way out of a paper bag - the only reasonable choice, Olympics or otherwise, is Ken (even if he's about as active in this election as a bag of wet cement).
9 April 2008
I knew it - Ken's employing computer hackers!! I think we've got him running scared.
But blimey! Is that the best he's got?!?! What about policies, Kenneth? What about reaching out to Londoners and offering them something new?
The answer is KL is MIA or AWOL, or maybe he's just filling his face at KFC!! Whatever the case, Boris has got this sewn up.
8 April 2008
Shouldn't the title of 'most-hard-done-by' go to the London public for having two sub-standard excuses for human beings to choose from to be their Mayor?!
8 April 2008
The latest debate was last night on Newsnight: http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_4670000/newsid_4679900/4679986.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1&bbcws=1
9 April 2008
I think there is a TV debate planned for the 21st on ITV - will Ken even bother to turn out?? It seems he's given up and allowing the blonde 'headed' one a free run at it. C'mon Ken, you can do better than this current lily-livered effort!
8 April 2008
Is there not a telvised debate planned sometime in the next few weeks? If not I'd be shocked and, frankly, disappointed. How are Londoners like myself supposed to make their decisions when all we hear about are the individual candidates making a mess of themselves? When are we going to hear about the issues?
Frankly I'd rather not have any of them.
8 April 2008
Congestion charge... 20mph speed limits... What next? Square wheels?
7 April 2008
Boris will surely make many more blunders before the campaign is over, whether or not Labour start to take him seriously. It should certainly get interesting nearer the time but at [1.5] he is miles too short for me, a lay if anything.
7 April 2008
Is Ken's 'secrets' closet now empty? I'm amazed he's managed to keep that under wraps for so long - will he be coming out with the 'Vote Ken - it's not for me, it's for the children' line? Surely he needs this job more than Boris now?
7 April 2008
Damn right, vote Boris!!
10 April 2008
Finally Ken can stop doing the hard work for Boris by shooting HIMSELF in the foot
7 April 2008
Describing Ken Livingstone as "a maverick craftsman of social policy" makes me want to barf
7 April 2008