World Cup Betting: Netherlands v Scotland

/ John Girvan / 27 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

The last time Scotland played the Netherlands away it resulted in a 6-0 defeat and Tartan Army member John Girvan isn't expecting a massive improvement this time round. Best bet: Back Netherlands in the -1.5 handicap at [1.96].

Scotland last met Holland in November 2003. The nations had been paired together for a two legged play-off for a place at 'Euro 2004' and Berti Vogts' side were massive underdogs. Hampden was an instant sell-out for the first leg and despite the gulf in class, the Tartan Army were hopeful - this represented the first glimour of hope since qualifying for the World Cup Finals in 1998.

A friend of mine was attending the game and with kick-off fast approaching his confidence was growing; each pint of Tennents lager he consumed was caressing, and in my eyes, tricking his football senses. I received a call from him and sure enough he wanted me to pop into the bookmakers for him and place a "loyalty bet" on Scotland to beat the mighty Holland.

"No chance" was my instant and sober reaction. I was making good time for the pub and had time to go and carry out that favour but in my infinite wisdom I decided to take the bet on myself. Even at [5.5] I was happy to oppose Scotland and without realising it at the time, we were mirroring what goes on between hundreds of thousands of punters each day on Betfair, though admittedly to somewhat smaller stakes than some of my fellow Betfairians!

With the only goal of the game, James McFadden's 22nd minute strike handed Scotland a memorable triumph and my pocket was £45 lighter. The return leg, four days later, was forgettable however as the Dutch dished out a 6-0 thrashing and with it our biggest defeat in 42 years. Injuries and a shortage of confidence in George Burley are leading many in the Scottish media to speculate on the possibility of another harsh lesson.

Rangers pair Davie Weir and Kirk Broadfoot miss this one and with Steven McManus also ruled out, his Celtic team mate Gary Caldwell will almost certainly take up one of the central defensive berths. The game comes too soon for Alan Hutton and Scotland will also have to make do without the defensive qualities of Celtic midfielder Paul Hartley. Gordon Strachan's "pupil" played a vital role in front of the back four in a 1-0 win over France in Paris and understudies of a similar quality are limited.

Wolves centre back Christophe Berra looks likely to make his debut but amongst the upheaval there will be some much needed experience. Darren Fletcher and captain Barry Ferguson will start and along with the improving Scott Brown, it's as good a central trio as the national side have had in a while. Kris Commons and James McFadden are out however and those are certainly two less players who are capable of producing something special.

Netherlands coach Bert van Marwijk has goalkeeping issues ahead of Saturday night's live Setanta clash. He failed in his attempt to coax Edwin van der Saar out of retirement again and it looks like he is relying on Maarten Stekelnburg, who has lost both his form and his first team place at Ajax. Reserve goalkeeper Michael Vorm pulled out of the squad with a knee injury but has not been replaced.

To counter this, and the loss of Atletico Madrid defender John Heitinga, he has a whole host of attacking outlets as, even without the injured Ruud Van Nistelrooy, his middle to front will be a "who's who" of international superstars including Robin Van Persie, Liverpool duo Ryan Babbel and Dirk Kuyt and Real Madrid trio Klass-Jan Huntelaar, Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder.

Sneijder was hugely influential the last time the sides met. The then 19 year-old was a PSV youngster but his inclusion for the Amsterdam Arena second leg proved to be a Dick Advocaat masterstroke. Real Madrid's current number 10 scored the crucial first and set up a further three and with over five years of experience behind him now he is surely even better prepared to inflict further damage on the Scots.

The Netherlands are cruising their way to the Finals with a 100% record in Group Nine. They sit third in the FIFA World Rankings at present and although George Burley's side advanced four places in the latest standings they still languish 25 points behind. There is pressure on Scotland after the home draw with Norway but the truth is that even the most ardent Scotland fans don't really expect too much from this encounter, with Wednesday's home tie with Iceland very much the priority.

Only the ninth worst runner-up misses out on a play-off spot and that's the position Scotland currently occupy. No-one expects a result against the Dutch and it can be a successful double header if three points are claimed at Hampden in mid-week.

Any result for Scotland, [13.5] in the Match Odds if you're feeling very optimistic, would be a bonus, but it has to be said that, given the circumstances, the [1.35] on a Holland victory looks long. The Netherlands -1.5 goals at [1.96] also looks big - that would secure a payout for any Dutch victory with at least a two goal margin.

A repeat of '6 goals or more' pays out at [17.82] but the Dutch had a point to prove last time and a more prudent approach in the Total Goals Market is perhaps the [1.89] on offer for three or more.