The Betfair Contrarian: Why Russia will host the 2018 World Cup

World Cup 2014 / The Betfair Contrarian / 20 July 2010 / 1 Comments

Roman Abramovich has shown his support for Russian football in the past by contributing to Guus Hiddink's wages during his time as national coach

"The reason Russia is the ideal choice for FIFA is that they will be giving a new country the opportunity to host but should steer clear of all the “will they be ready in time?” scaremongering that plagued the build-up to the 2010 World Cup and has already cropped up with regards to Brazil in 2014. Russia already have eight 30,000-plus capacity stadiums and some of their richest businessmen are happy to put their hands in their pocket when needed..."

England are favourites to host the 2018 World Cup which would mean plenty of Union Jack waving and singing of "Football's Coming Home". The Betfair Contrarian thinks we don't need to bother envisaging such scenarios though because Russia will be the ones hosting it...

Amazing fact of the day: England are favourites to host the 2018 World Cup, despite offending FIFA board members, tinkering with their bid team so often that you'd swear Claudio Ranieri must pulling the strings from somewhere, accusing rivals of plotting to bribe referees and being undermined by their own newspapers. There's no complaint from the Contrarian though, who instead intends to exploit the patriotic, misplaced optimism of a bet on England by backing Russia at [3.4]...

Every rival bid has clear flaws

Besides Russia, there are four bids to stage the 2018 World Cup: England, USA, Spain/Portugal and Holland/Belgium, but holes can be picked into every one. With the next World Cup taking place in Brazil, this is the first time that there have been two successive finals held outside of Europe, and unfortunately for USA, it's unthinkable that they would make it three in a row. England may be [2.16] favourites, but if the decision truly is made on the merits of the bid and organisation, awarding it to England would be laughable after all the shambolic preparation. Joint bids are no longer in vogue either, with Japan and South Korea in 2002 the only nations ever to co-host.

FIFA will likely opt for a first-time host

There is a strong pattern suggesting that FIFA like to alternate between hosts who have taken care of the competition in the past and fresh blood. It started in 1986 with the surprising choice to give Colombia the chance (though they would later resign), then the safe option of Italy was taken in 1990 ahead of a step into the unknown by taking the World Cup stateside in 1994, before Japan and South Korea (2002) and South Africa (2010) took turns sandwiched between France (1998), Germany (2006) and Brazil (2014), who had all hosted the competition before. FIFA can afford to snub countries like England safe in the knowledge that the majority of the nation will still tune in, so prefer to cement the sports popularity in other regions.

Russia is the fresh but safe option

The reason Russia is the ideal choice for FIFA is that they will be giving a new country the opportunity to host but should steer clear of all the "will they be ready in time?" scaremongering that plagued the build-up to the 2010 World Cup and has already cropped up with regards to Brazil in 2014. Russia already have eight 30,000-plus capacity stadiums and some of their richest businessmen are happy to put their hands in their pocket when needed, as Roman Abramovich showed by contributing to Guus Hiddink's wages during his time as national coach.

It would reward their domestic growth

The Russian attempt also deserves serious consideration because the Russian FA has delivered significant improvement in their game at club level in recent years. The foundation of the Russian Premier League in 2001 saw Spartak Moscow's domestic dominance curbed, CSKA Moscow (2004) and Zenit St Petersburg (2008) earned the country its first European trophies by winning the UEFA Cup and the league is now ranked the sixth best in Europe, having been as low as 21st in 2004. By rewarding such improvement, FIFA can be seen to offer an incentive for others to work harder, which is also in their own interests.

Blatter is clearly a fan

If the Contrarian talking up Russia's credentials doesn't convince you, then maybe FIFA president Sepp Blatter's words of wisdom will sway you: "I was there recently and what they presented is remarkable. Russia is not a country but a continent and Russia has big plans to expand."

Comments (1)

1. Strompy | 25 August 2010

   Here's why I think Russia won't win:

   * An August 1999 bombing of a shopping arcade and a September 1999 bombing of an apartment building in Moscow that killed sixty-four people.
   * Two bombings in September 1999 in the Russian republic of Dagestan and southern Russian city of Volgodonsk. Controversy still surrounds whether these attacks were conclusively linked to Chechens.
   * A bomb blast that killed at least forty-one people, including seventeen children, during a military parade in the southwestern town of Kaspiisk in May 2002. Russia blamed the attack on Chechen terrorists.
   * The October 2002 seizure of Moscow's Dubrovka Theater, where approximately seven hundred people were attending a performance. Russian Special Forces launched a rescue operation, but the opium-derived gas they used to disable the hostage-takers killed more than 120 hostages, as well as many of the terrorists. Basayev took responsibility for organizing the attack, and three Chechen-affiliated groups are thought to have been involved.
   * A December 2002 dual suicide bombing that attacked the headquarters of Chechnya's Russian-backed government in Grozny. Russian officials claim that international terrorists helped local Chechens mount the assault, which killed eighty-three people.
   * A three-day attack on Ingushetia in June 2004, which killed almost one hundred people and injured another 120.
   * Street fighting in October 2005 that killed at least eighty-five people. The fighting was in the south Russian city of Nalchik after Chechen rebels assaulted government buildings, telecommunications facilities, and the airport.
   * An attack on the Nevsky Express, used by members of the business and political elite, in November 2009 killed twenty-seven people.
   * In March 2010, two female suicide bombers detonated bombs in a Moscow metro station located near the headquarters of the security services, killing thirty-nine people. Islamist Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarov claimed responsibility for the bombing; he had also claimed responsibility for the derailment of the Nevsky Express.
   * Two days after the metro station bombing in March 2010, two bombs exploded in the town of Kizlyar, in Russia's North Caucasus, killing at least twelve people.

   
   Food for thought, no?