World Cup 2010 / James Eastham / 09 October 2009 / Leave a comment

A winner-takes-all match between two of Europe's heavyweight teams ought to deliver plenty of entertainment and goals, especially on Moscow's plastic pitch, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Russia v Germany over 2.5 goals @ [2.02].

Recommended bets: Russia v Germany over 2.5 goals @ 2.02; both teams to score @ 1.7; Andriy Arshavin to score anytime @ 3.4.

You have to feel sorry for Russia: they have a points tally that would be good enough to top five of the other European qualifying groups, yet they're runners-up in Group 4 with only two games to go.

Guus Hiddink's side's outstanding record of seven wins and a single defeat from eight matches underlines the quality of their side - but the reason the Russians occupy only second place is because their sole defeat came away to group leaders Germany in Dortmund 12 months ago. Andriy Arshavin was on the scoresheet for the visitors but goals from Lukas Podolski and Michael Ballack earned Joachim Low's hosts three points.

This game is Russia's chance for revenge - and I expect a similarly open, high-scoring encounter. A home victory would put Russia two points clear at the top of the group before their final game in Azerbaijan next Wednesday, while a German triumph would secure their place at next summer's finals. A draw would obviously suit Germany, as they're one point clear at the moment and hosting Finland next Wednesday - but playing for a point would be a foolish approach away to Hiddink's brilliantly talented side.

Germany midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger says Germany's main intention will be keeping a clean sheet, but do the visitors really have the players to do that? They are better going forward than defending these days, so the chances of them shutting out Arshavin and his team-mates for 90 minutes appear slim.

Should either side carry a lead into half-time, the second-half should be an attacking, potentially frantic affair, encouraging further goals on the plastic pitch of the Luzhniki Stadium where Russia undid England on route to Euro 2008 qualification.

Russia are [2.52] favourites, with Germany trading at [3.15] and the draw [3.45]. None of those prices appeals, and Russia with a 0-goal start on the Asian handicap (thereby providing a safety net should the game end all-square) is too short at [1.74].

I prefer the goals markets in a game where Russia will play to win and Germany will eventually have to rely on their attacking power to get something out of the game. Over 2.5 goals is available at an excellent price of [2.02], making it my best bet - while both teams to score at [1.7] is also worth considering. For the hosts Arshavin will be the main man, as ever, and prices around [3.4] on him scoring anytime are too big given Russia's need to attack and the diminuitive striker's superb club form.