World Cup 2010 / Tobias Gourlay / 09 October 2009 / Leave a comment

You might think Greece versus Latvia makes for a boring game of football. Not so, says Tobias Gourlay. Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.1]

"Recommendations: No to the Greece Clean Sheet at [2.0]; back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.1]"

Led by Vitalijs Astafjevs, who will equal the European record of 156 international caps in this match, Latvia are well-placed in European Qualifying Group Two to make it to a major tournament for a second time. The former Bristol Rovers man has helped them to joint-second place with two games to go. The first of those matches is in Athens against Greece, the team alongside them on 14 points.

Greece's manager, Otto Rehhagel, has called up Panathinaikos's Vangelis Mantzios for the first time in a year because striker Angelos Charisteas is injured, but the squad is otherwise close to full strength.

This time last year, Greece were about to beat Moldova at home for a third successive group-stage win. Since that victory, they have won only one of their five matches, defeating Israel 2-1 at home. The only other home game ended in a 2-1 defeat to the group leaders, Switzerland. The 2004 European champions are still [1.38] favourites for this weekend's match. They haven't drawn a competitive home game since being held 0-0 by their great rivals Turkey in 2004 (14 matches ago), but that result's only available to lay at [5.4]. The opposition was the same the last time Latvia drew an away game - 17 matches ago in Istanbul.

Success on the road is what has distinguished Latvia's 2010 qualifying campaign from many previous ones. Aleksandrs Starkovs's team have beaten Moldova, Luxembourg and - most recently and most impressively - Israel. They lost 2-1 to the Swiss, but that match comprises part of a run of scoring in seven consecutive competitive matches on the road. You can say No to the Greece Clean Sheet at [2.0], but the margin of value looks much narrower from the Greek side - they have conceded in 8/15 competitive home matches since winning Euro 2004.

Largely on the strength of their stultifying Euro 2004 campaign, Rehhagel's Greece have a reputation for playing dull football. Be that as it may, their last six home matches have all produced at least three goals. With Latvia's scoring record in mind, Over 2.5 Goals at [2.1] is the recommendation here.

Tags: Aleksandrs Starkovs, Greece, International Football Betting, Latvia, Otto Rehhagel, Tobias Gourlay, Vangelis Mantzios, Vitalijs Astafjevs, World Cup Qualifiers