World Cup 2010 / James Eastham / 09 October 2009 / Leave a comment

This encounter could decide which side eventually tops the group - so expect no holds barred when the Nordic rivals go head-to-head, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Denmark v Sweden both teams to score @ [1.88].

Recommended bets: Denmark v Sweden draw @ 3.4; 1-1 correct scoreline at 7.0; both teams to score @ 1.88.

Scandinavian derbies don't normally need an excuse to be full-blooded, but this match will be particularly hard-fought as the stakes could not be higher this weekend.

Group 1 leaders Denmark are on 18pts, meaning they need only two draws from their remaining two matches to be sure of clinching a place at next summer's World Cup finals. Visitors Sweden have 15pts, but with Portugal and Hungary (who meet in Lisbon on Saturday night) only two points behind, the visitors cannot take second place for granted yet.

A draw might ultimately be good enough for both teams, but neither side can afford to play for a point. "We'll be going all-out for the win,." said Denmark's 102 times-capped striker Jon Dahl Tomasson this week, while Sweden coach Lars Lagerback added: "We're focusing on taking six points from our final two matches. The other games [in the group] we can't do anything about."

Denmark's campaign began with four wins and a draw, including a 1-0 victory over Sweden in Stockholm last June, when former Auxerre playmaker Thomas Kahlenberg (now at German champions Wolfsburg) scored the only goal. Yet the Danes have let other teams back into the face, notably by managing only a draw away to Albania (1-1) last month four days after dropping points at home to Portugal (1-1). As a result confidence has fallen a little in the Danish camp, giving Sweden an excellent chance to nick a point.

The draw is the outsider of three at [3.4] and that's my selection over Denmark ([2.6]) or Sweden ([3.05]) in the match market. Correct scoreline bettors ought to consider 1-1 at [7.0], while both teams to score is a hugely appealing wager at [1.88] because both teams will prioritise attacking over defending, at least for the first hour.

Daniel Agger is back in the Denmark squad after a lengthy absence through injury. Johan Elmander (thigh injury) is missing for Sweden, but Henrik Larsson is recalled and may start in attack alongside Zlatan Ibrahimovic.