World Cup 2010 / Richard Aikman / 13 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Spain certainly have the quality to overcome Bosnia-Herzegovina in midweek but injuries, suspensions and the fact they have long-since qualified for the World Cup are considerations that could well bring the European champions to heel in Zeneca, writes Richard Aikman.

"Vicente Del Bosque has been left with a threadbare squad for the final match of the campaign. [3.95] about a 'surprise' home win therefore represents value."

Spain won their ninth successive qualifying match against Armenia at the weekend but that hard-fought victory was by no means the walkover many expected.

Cesc Fabregas's opener was cancelled out by Robert Arzumanyan in the second half before Juan Mata's penalty decided the match in favour of la Furia Roja, who looked far from their convincing best against the European minnows.

Spain had to dig deep for these points and will find life even more hard-going against second-placed Bosnia-Herzegovina, who are a far stronger side than Armenia. Furthermore, Spain will also be without five key players for the midweek excursion.

David Villa and Dani Guiza missed Saturday's match through injury and will remain out, Carlos Merchena was injured against Armenia and will be sidelined on Wednesday, while the influential Xavi has been withdrawn as a precaution. Barcelona captain Carles Puyol is suspended after picking up a booking and Fabregas has also absented himself to be with his sick Grandad.

With slight concerns also remaining over Fernando Torres and Andres Iniesta - who have both picked up minor knocks - Vicente Del Bosque has been left with a decidedly threadbare squad for the final match of the campaign. [3.95] about a 'surprise' home win therefore represents value even if Spain do boast a squad with strength in depth.

While Europe's finest were beating Armenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina assured themselves of a place in the World Cup play-offs with a 2-0 win in Estonia on Saturday thanks to goals by Edin Dzeko, who has now scored an impressive eight goals in qualifying, and Vedad Ibsevic - who returned to scoring ways with Hoffenheim recently with the second fastest ever Bundesliga hat-trick against Hertha Berlin.

But although they are now home and hosed in terms of a play-off berth the proud Bosnia-Herzegovnians will be fired up for this match. The hosts gave Spain a run for their money in Murcia when narrowly losing 1-0 on their opening qualifying match and sealed they have clinched the runners-up spot after beating Turkey at home and Belgium both home and away.

Bosnia-Herzegovnia will want to give an equally good account of themselves in front of their home supporters as they gear up for the World Cup play-offs and, after they put seven past Estonia and four past both Armenia and Belgium, expect more goals to rain in a free-flowing match.

Recommended bets:

Bosnia to beat Spain @ [3.95] - Best Bet
Total goals: three goals or more @ [1.97]

Tags: Andres Iniesta, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cesc Fabregas, David Villa, Fernando Torres, Football betting odds, Spain, World Cup Qualifiers Betting Odds, Xavi