World Cup Play-Off Betting: Bosnia v Portugal

World Cup / Richard Aikman / 17 November 2009 / 3 Comments

Deco admitted Portugal were slightly fortunate not to concede in the first leg but the one goal lead is likely to be enough to see Portugal book their place in South Africa next year.

It was first blood Portugal as Carlos Queiroz's side secured a 1-0 win in the absence of Cristiano Ronaldo and that lead is a priceless one, specially given that three Bosnian players picked up suspensions in the process. Either way, goals are on the cards second time round says Richard Aikman.

"If the hosts grab the first goal it’s anyone’s match but if, as expected, Bosnia’s suspension-depleted defence cracks first, this match could very well result in an away win for the Portuguese."

Deco admitted that his side "rode their luck" after surviving three scares on the way to earning a one-goal first-leg lead over Bosnia in their World Cup play-off tie in Lisbon. That's in the past now though and Portugal can be expected to book their trip to South Africa after the second leg in Zenica on Wednesday night.

Bruno Alves struck after 31 minutes of Saturday night's match, stooping to head in Nani's right-wing cross at the far post, but the hosts failed to convert their superiority into further goals and also had the woodwork to thank for preserving their slender lead.

Senijad Ibricic thudded a header against the crossbar shortly before the interval. Then, in the dying seconds of the contest, Edin Dzeko followed suit with substitute Zlatan Muslimovic drilling the rebound against the far post. "In the end we had some luck but even this advantage is not decisive," said Deco. "The important thing was not conceding."

An equalising goal would have been hard on Portugal, though, as they made most of the running throughout the contest. With their opponents content to sit back and absorb the pressure Raul Meireles, Liedson and Nani all threatened Kenan Hesagic with attempts on goal, while Pepe shone in his improvised holding midfielder role, linking defence to attack with impressive speed.

In the absence of Ronaldo, Nani came to life on the right flank, his teasing cross for the goal exactly the sort of delivery that has been missing from his performances at Old Trafford this season. "It was a difficult game, but overall we were better and controlled almost the whole game. In Zenica if we score a goal there, everything will be easier, but we must be very intelligent and we must hold on to the ball."

The fact that it took a defender to score will be a concern for Portugal coach Carlos Queiroz, whose side's lack of goals has been a feature of their campaign. Portugal mustered just 17 goals in 10 matches, and their failure to beat Sweden, Denmark and Albania at home in the group stage landed them in this pickle in the first place. Indeed had it not been for Alves, Portugal might not have reached the play-off stage at all, as it was the defender's added-time winner against Albania that spared his side's blushes in Tirana in June.

Portugal's cause will, however, be helped by the bookings picked up by defender Emir Spahic, Elvir Rahimic and Samir Muratovic, which rule them all out of Wednesday's game. The loss of captain Spahic, who has been ever-present in their impressive campaign is a blow for the hosts, even if Nani did give him a torrid time in Lisbon. Rahimic, (known to his club side CSKA Moscow as 'iron man') and fellow defensive midfielder Muratovic, will also be sorely missed after both gave disciplined displays in the first leg.

Bosnia do not boast a large squad and their lack of defensive players suggests they will focus on what they do best: attack. Miroslav Blazevic's men have scored 25 goals in qualifying and so will be looking to get back to scoring ways in a game in which they have nothing to lose: "We can't go through if we play like we did in the first leg, but the return match will be a completely different game of football and we will apply a new strategy to surprise Portugal," said Blazevic.

As Deco has intimated, his side will try to box clever by taking a back seat and then look to hit their hosts on the counter-attack. How this game unfolds will depend on who scores first. If the hosts grab the first goal it's anyone's match but if, as expected, Bosnia's suspension-depleted defence cracks first, this match could very well result in an away win for the Portuguese.

Either way, given Bosnia's vulnerability at the back, their potency in attack and the open nature of the Lisbon encounter, we can expect goals for both sides this time around.

Recommended bets:

Bets Bet: Lay Bosnia @ [3.05]
Both teams to score @ [1.81]
Over 2.5 goals @ [2.12]

Tags: Bosnia v Portugal preview, football betting, Portugal footbal team, Simao Sabrosa, world Cup odds, World Cup play-offs