World Cup 2010 / Ben Lyttleton / 06 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Ben Lyttleton looks at the controversy caused by Fifa's announcement this week that teams in the play-offs will be seeded, why the likes of Portugal and France may have to get to the World Cup the hard way and who our money should be on to make the cut.

"Instead, it might be better to focus on one of the unseeded play-off sides
in the "to qualify" market. Of course all these prices will change once the
draw is made, and though Ireland, 2.54, and Greece, 2.14, have made
good progress under foreign coaches, the stand-out bet here is on
Bosnia-Herzegovina at 2.42."

Fifa announced last week, after an 18-month silence on the matter, that the World Cup qualifying play-off matches schedulded for November will be seeded after all. We will never know if that decision would have been the same had high-profile nations like Portugal, France and Russia all been successful in their efforts to qualify from their groups, but it did seem an odd moment to make it public (why not before the qualifying started, when all tournament rules should be fixed?).

And though this decision certainly seems to hand an advantage to the bigger nations, there might yet to be a big-name casualty or two along the way. As the groups currently stand, the eight second-placed qualifiers will be France, Russia, Sweden, Croatia (as the likely seeded teams) and Greece, Ireland, Slovenia and Bosnia-Herzegovina (as the unseeded sides).

Those current standings don't factor in two huge sides that could yet appear in the play-offs: Portugal, ([2.26]) to qualify, who are two points behind Sweden and have winnable home matches against Hungary and Malta to come, and Germany, who will probably finish second if Russia beat them in Moscow on Saturday night, which is a ([2.54]) price. I think Germany, aided by the strength in midfield provided by the in-form Simon Rolfes and Thomas Hitzlsperger, will be able to draw that match at ([3.45]) ­ but who would want to face Russia in the play-offs?

Although they have hardly set the qualifiers alight, the side that can boast Champions League scorers in Andrey Arsahvin, Alan Dzagoev and Pavel Pogrebnyak are the most dangerous of the likely play-off sides, reflected in their ([1.23]) price to qualify.

On the other hand, France have shown throughout the qualification that they are most definitely less than the sum of their parts. Despite being able to call upon first-choice strikers from Real Madrid (Karim Benzema), Chelsea (Nicolas Anelka) and Barcelona (Thierry Henry), coach Raymond Domenech currently prefers Andre-Pierre Gignac of Toulouse.

The other problem he has failed to address is at centre-back, where a partner for William Gallas is still undecided. Arsene Wenger has identified that Gallas plays better alongside a natural leader ­ new signing Thomas Vermaelen may be only 21, but see how he directs his team-mates at corner-kicks ­ but Domenech has failed to spot that. None of Sebastien Squillaci, Julien Escude, Jean-Alain Boumsong or Philippe Mexes has yet impressed in the position, and so Domenech sometimes experiments with left-back Eric Abidal there: hardly the act of a man who has been using his five years at the helm planning long-term. France are a much more tempting lay in this market, but at only ([1.38]), again the value is minimal.

Instead, it might be better to focus on one of the unseeded play-off sides in the "to qualify" market. Of course all these prices will change once the draw is made, and though Ireland, ([2.54]), and Greece, ([2.14]), have made good progress under foreign coaches, the stand-out bet here is on Bosnia-Herzegovina at ([2.42]).

Under Ciro Blazevic, the madcap Bosnian who led Croatia to third place in the 1998 World Cup, the Bosnian side has gone from catastrophe ­ 18 months ago 19 players went on strike, fans boycotted matches and the FA was accused of fraud ­ to glory, second place in a tough group that contains Spain, Turkey and Belgium. Blazevic has claimed it's all down to him but with Wolfsburg¹s German champions Zvjezdan Misimovic and Edin Dzeko, as well as Lyon's new hero Miralem Pjanic and fit-again Hoffenheim striker Vedad Ibisevic, the talent at his disposal certainly helps.

It means that Bosnia will be the team to avoid in the play-off draw, and if a more fancied side like France or Portugal have to face them, plump for the underdogs and don't be surprised if there is a surprise.

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