World Cup 2010 / Alsy / 14 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Having come within a minute of having their World Cup dreams dashed, Argentina dodged a bullet as Martin Palermo's late, late winner kept them on track at home to Peru at the weekend. But tonight's opponents Uruguay are a whole different kettle of fish, says Alister Morgan.

"Argentina need a win to guarantee fourth place and qualification. Ordinarily a squad that boasts Carlos Tevez, Sergio Aguero, Javier Mascherano, Gabriel Heinze and Lionel Messi should be up to the task but recent form suggests that Maradona could be in for another rough managerial night."

When people talk about the 'beautiful game' they often reference South America. Football may have originated here but it emigrated to the beaches of Brazil and hard pitches of Argentina years ago. Diego Maradona was perhaps the rarest football talent of all which makes Argentina's stuttering qualification campaign all the more galling. There's little evidence of the beautiful game with Maradona the manager to date but there's certainly drama, intrigue, tears and redemption in this Latin American soap opera.

On Saturday night it was certainly worth burning the midnight oil to watch Argentina vs. Peru. This fiercely contested game overflowed with tension and torrential rain before Martin Palermo sealed a 2-1 win in stoppage time. Sir Alex Ferguson is used to playing beyond ninety minutes until the desired result emerges but a belly-sliding Maradona was clearly surprised and delighted. On Wednesday night will they be as fortunate against a Uruguay side who've lost only once at home during this campaign? I have my doubts.

Argentina need a win to guarantee fourth place and qualification. Ordinarily a squad that boasts Carlos Tevez, Sergio Aguero, Javier Mascherano, Gabriel Heinze and Lionel Messi should be up to the task but recent form suggests that Maradona could be in for another rough managerial night. You can back Argentina to win the game at [3.1] while the hosts are [2.52] but I think Uruguay's odds on victory should be narrower with Argentina desperately lacking consistency.#

A draw for Diego Maradona's side will also suffice unless Ecuador win away to Chile by a five goal margin. Defeat for Argentina will mean dropping behind Uruguay into the play-off spot but if Ecuador win by any score, then this option is lost. With so much at stake The draw at [3.5] looks a little generous to me and I'd consider backing it at that price. Admittedly it's a result that neither team wants but it might be enough for both parties if Chile play to form and beat Ecuador at home. If the score is deadlocked in Uruguay and Chile are winning in Santiago, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Where might Argentina's goals come from? I wouldn't look to back Messi in the To Score market at [2.8]. Watching him play reminds me of Keanu Reeves' character Neo in The Matrix trilogy. His fighting skills are breathtaking but no matter how many genius killer moves he delivers, there are always another few dozen Agent Smith clones waiting to impede his progress. It's a myth that South Americans do not appreciate the dark arts of defending and Uruguay (with a darker history than most) will make sure Messi's dancing feet remain outside of their box.

Messi last scored for Argentina seven games ago in March while Aguero hasn't quite done at international level what he's done for Atletico Madrid. Real Madrid's Higuain has only just begun his international career (he had the option to play for France instead) but, like most Madrid players, is used to performing under pressure and scored Argentina's first goal Wednesday night - I'd consider backing him at [3.6] to trouble the scorers again on Wednesday night. Pablo Aimar is another player brought back into the international fold who impressed against Peru. Free from past expectations of being saddled as, 'the next Maradona', he can inject some much needed creativity to the Argentina attack while Messi draws defensive fire.

Maradona is certainly not afraid to bring in new faces but everyone knows that defence (or lack thereof) is the real issue. Only Heinze remains from the beginning of the campaign and while Argentina defended well for most part against Peru, repelling Sebastian Abreu and Diego Forlan in front of 70,000 screaming Uruguayans is a more sobering assignment than the whipping boys of the group. If you're looking for potential scorers from the home side them Forlan at [2.8] or Luis Suarez at [3.0] seem most likely, especially since they were both on target when beating Ecuador 2-1 away on Saturday. Finally, I'd also consider the Sending-Off Market. Win, lose or draw a sending-off at [2.0] matches Argentina's current drama-laced script. Backers be aware that if it's Diego Maradona himself that gets his marching orders should he really lose the plot, this wouldn't count for the purposes of the market!

Tags: Argentina football team, Carlos Tevez, Diego Maradona, football betting, Lionel Messi