World Cup 2010 / Ben Lyttleton / 03 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Bosnia's attacking flair provided the feel good story of qualifying but a rejuvenated Portugal now stand between them and South Africa. It's going to be close but we should expect goals, says Ben Lyttleton.

"European play-offs in 2005 averaged three goals per game and it should be similar this time. Portugal need to take an advantage to Zenica while Bosnia want an away goal."

Much has been written about Bosnia-Herzegovina's impressive achievement in finishing second in World Cup qualifying Group Five and how the former Balkan state were the team to avoid in last month's play-off draw.

The reason was not just that Edin Dzeko, the lanky striker nicknamed Lamppost while struggling to succeed at Sarajevo side Zeljeznicar, is a German title winner with Wolfsburg and wanted by AC Milan; nor that vice-captain Zvjezdan Misimovic has been called "a cross between Dragan Stojkovic and Zvonomir Boban." And never mind that Bosnia scored an impressive 25 goals in qualifying, more than six group winners managed.

No, the reason for this feel-good story is the context: 18 months ago, 19 of the Bosnian players went on strike in protest when popular boss Meho Kodro was sacked as coach, while fans were boycotting games and the FA board was accused of embezzlement. That was the backdrop to the arrival of charismatic Ciro Blazevic as coach. He has turned around their fortunes and remains the central figure in their renaissance.

Bosnia-Herzegovina were [2.24] to qualify for the World Cup before the play-off draw, but now they have been pitted against Portugal, their price has gone out to [4.1]. The fact that Portugal will be without captain Cristiano Ronaldo may not affect the favourites as much as you might think: Ronaldo's presence around the camp was a constant distraction to the other players, his performances never matched those for his club sides, while the simmering rivalry with Simao Sabrosa, who was overlooked for the armband, has not helped.

In fact, Portugal looked more united in a long time in beating Hungary 1-0 and Malta 4-0 in their last qualifiers, results that have pushed them back into the world's top 10. But perhaps a greater loss than Ronaldo is that of Pedro Mendes, back in the side after a five-year gap and Man of the Match against Hungary. Mendes' Rangers team-mate Sasa Papac, a Bosnian international, has warned Portugal to expect a hostile atmosphere at the Zenica stadium in the second leg.

It will suit Blazevic that Ronaldo is unavailable, as it will undoubtedly heap more attention on himself. And though he has warned his players not to be too aggressive in the first leg ­as nine of them are just one yellow card away from missing the second leg he will keep faith in his attacking approach despite claiming he plans to copy Greece's Euro 2004 tactics. "We have to stifle them in midfield and keep going forward whenever possible," he said. "We have to close down every inch of space and try to get the away goal, because our chances will be very slim if we don't score in the first leg."

The three European play-off matches in 2005 averaged three goals per game and there's no reason why it should be any different this time around. Portugal will need to take an advantage to Zenica while Blazevic wants that away goal.

Blazevic has compared the spirit of this Bosnian side to the Croatian side he coached to third place in the 1998 World Cup. He recently told betting.betfair's Jonathan Wilson about the team-talk he gave Croatia before their World Cup quarter-final against Germany.

He had just been told by the country's president Franjo Tudjman, "Ciro, you must win," and felt himself going green and feeling sick as he was about to tell his players how to counter the threat of Oliver Bierhoff. "I crumpled my theories and I just said, 'You have to go outside and die today for the Croatian flag and all the people who have given their lives.' And we won 3-0. You just have to understand the psychology of the players."

The team-talk against Portugal might be slightly different, but don't be too surprised if the end-result is the same.

Tags: Ben Lyttelton, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cristiano Ronaldo, Edzin Edko, Portugal, South Africa 2010 betting odds, World Cup 2010 Qualifiers betting, World Cup odds