FIFA World Cup Draw: Sepp Blatter makes the rules
World Cup 2010 
/ Alsy / 09 November 2009 / 6 Comments
The official FIFA World Cup ball will be on display as teams find out their fate on the 4th December in Cape Town.
December 4th is an important day for the diary as that's when the FIFA World Cup draw takes place. Alister Morgan tells us about the seedings controversy ahead of the play-offs and how Sepp Blatter keeps moving the goalposts.
"What happens next is anyone’s guess as Fifa refuse to clarify the seeding procedure until all 32 nations are confirmed. With only two European teams allowed in any one group it will take them a while to work out the best system. All we know for sure is that South Africa are seeded but no one is certain why. "
The 2010 World Cup Finals draw takes place in Cape Town, South Africa on December 4th 2009. By then we'll have 32 nations which need to be separated into eight groups of four. It sounds pretty simple but the qualification process has been pretty convoluted with many accusing Fifa of moving the goalposts to favour influential European teams when creating seeds for the forthcoming play-offs. To be fair to Fifa, there is precedence as they chose a similar seeding system in 2006 but the suggestion is that Sepp Blatter reserves the right to assist major European countries in qualification.
Not so long ago Germany, Portugal and France were all in danger of missing the big event in South Africa and in the end only Germany managed to secure automatic qualification with France and Portugal facing a play-off as seeded teams. The thought of Portugal and France drawing one another in a play-off is the stuff of Fifa nightmares so a play-off seeding system was introduced at the eleventh hour ruling that seeded teams could not be drawn against one another. It all adds up to bad news for Giovanni Trapattoni whose Republic of Ireland side were left unseeded and now face France in a two-legged play-off beginning Saturday.
In other Uefa play-offs I expect Portugal to beat Bosnia (even without Cristiano Ronaldo) and Russia to defeat Slovenia. Greece v Ukraine and Republic of Ireland v France are not so clear cut. The good news for Ireland is that France's celebrated collection of football gems look flawed under Raymond Domenech. Stars like Thierry Henry, Franck Ribery, Karim Benzema and Nicolas Anelka shine intermittently but France have been disjointed and inconsistent. Domenech's domestic approval rating hovers somewhere between the stellar reputations of Graham Taylor and Steve McClaren. He's a man on the edge and all the pressure will be on France to win, making odds on a first-leg Republic win very tempting at [3.15]. France's megastars will try to produce a team performance against an Irish side without much star quality but big on team spirit. If you're feeling bullish about Irish chances then the more prudent bet would backing Republic of Ireland to qualify at [3.55]. For neutrals you have to assume that the greater quality of France will out.
What happens next is anyone's guess as Fifa refuse to clarify the seeding procedure until all 32 nations are confirmed. With only two European teams allowed in any one group it will take them a while to work out the best system. All we know for sure is that South Africa are seeded but no one is certain why. Automatic qualification for host nations is one thing but automatic seeding is another matter entirely. Again it's difficult to imagine Fifa ignoring commercial considerations. They are eager for greater global parity in the game and the longer the hosts stay in the tournament, the better the story for this inaugural African World Cup.
Four years ago Fifa Finals draw came from one pot of seeded nations, one unseeded nations (from South America, Africa and Oceania), one further pot of eight Europeans nations and a final pot of seven nations from Asia and Concacaf. With so many European teams qualified (13 already) it's difficult to imagine what they will do but regardless, I'd be looking at a small group of potential winners headed by Brazil.
Backing the South Americans is an easy decision. They cruised to qualification winning impressive victories home and away to justify their position as joint favourites, with Spain, at [6.0] to win. Thereafter a host of European teams dominate the betting while South Africa are [110.0] to win on home soil. This price is far too charitable for a team that is well-organised (albeit lacking true creative flair) and will have a whole nation of fervent support behind them . I'm not suggesting that they're likely to win, rather suggesting that as a seeded team this may make for a decent trading opportunity.
Elsewhere Italy at [17.0] to win seem a little undervalued - especially when you consider that they're current holders of the World Cup. Portugal also look tempting at [21.0]. Perhaps this talented bunch of underachievers will finally galvanise around the sublime talents of Ronaldo and fulfil their huge potential.
Comments (6)
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Diego | 16 November 2009
How will the seeded nations be determined for the World Cup? The logical choices are:
Brazil,Argentina,England, Germany, Holland, Spain, France, Italy.
However given the fact that South Africa will be a seeded team means that one of the above nations will meiss out. Who will this be?
Diego.
(Austrlia)
Sancho | 18 November 2009
"All we know for sure is that South Africa are seeded but no one is certain why."
I know why. Ever since the holders don't get an automatic qualification, the open game, always A1:A2, is now played by the hosts. So not only they are seeded, but in Group A: as happened to South Korea in 2002.
Henrik | 19 November 2009
No Diego that is NOT logical choises. Logic comes from a proven system based om rankingsand/or results.
To be seeded you have to be top 7 of a given criteria, right? Becaus ewe know South Africa will be seeded already.
Holland would be a logical choise if we look at the FIFA ranking, but never together with England and Argentina! Believe me.
England would be a logical choise if we look at the latest2 World Cups as a criteria (which FiFA used as one of many criterias at WC2006). But never together with Holland.
So if you look at the FIFA ranking this 7 countries have earned their seeding staus with South Africa:
1.Spain
2.Brazil
3.Holland
4.Italy
5.Germany
6.Portugal
7.France
But we know FIFA uses the results from latest 2 world cups also. The 7 best teams from that criteria is:
1. Germany
2. Brazil
3. Italy
4. England
5. Spain
6. France
7. Portugal
So anyone can see taht Argentina is NOT one of the teams that should be seeded. I can tell you they are placed at 8:th place in both criterias i showed you.
But the thing is as follows: Probabli FIFA will seed Argentina anyway. That is how FIFA works. They will probably use the same system as last world cup, which is a horrible seeding formula.
And Holland will not be seeded.
Everyone can see that both France and Portugal is better than Argentina in both criterias. But FIFA want exactly 5 euro teams seeded to have exactly 8 euro teams left for an own european pot2.
So then the seeded teams would be: South Africa, Spain, Brazil, Germany, Italy, England, France, Argentina.
Michiel | 20 November 2009
You are probably right as FIFA wants to South American teams in the next round. So Argentina will be seeded. I do not understand why Holland should go out. WC results are 4 years ago and the FIFA list is up to date and takes into account results over the last years.
psychokom@ | 21 November 2009
Greetings all.
On the previous WC2006. keeping european teams appart was done somewhat differently.
It involved that one european team had to be put into a special pot and drawed first in one of the Groups. (in that case it turned out to be then Serbia&Montenegro, as the lowest ranking euro team). This meant that this team would guaranteedly face Argentina or Mexico as a top seed in that group. Turned out to be the Group of Death, C, with Holland and Ivory Coast joining Argentina and Serbia&Mont.
This decision was also made at the last moment. Heidi Clum did the rest, maybe with the balls from the fridge ("pull out the colder, Heidi") :)
Anyway, If this was to be repeated in this WC, then Slovenia would be in that situation now.
As for the Pot's 2, 3, 4, they were made by an geografical criteria. All this surely was felt unfair.
This was made to avoid following conditions:
Maximum 2 Teams from the UEFA zone in a Group
Maximum 1 Team from the (other) same FIFA zone's in a Group.
But if the Pots 2, 3 ,4 also like Pot 1, wouldn't be consisted by an regional criteria, but achievments, (past 2 WC's and FIFA Rankings) in that situation, I think those conditions could also be kept by a directed draw- (removing a team or more from the momentary draw of a particular Group when facing a possibility of breaking one of above rules)*
As it seems, now the Host, South Africa, will be put into Pot 1. That is understandable, considering that is in the economical and public interest that the Host team go as far as possible. If you follow past World Cups, from the last 4 decades, and 10 World cups, the Host made it through the Group Stage. Even when the Tournament had started to play out in somewhat egzotic football places. This time, though, it would be hard to see S.Africa to go through, considering that through achievements they would be in the last Pot 4. So, they have been granted an even bigger chance then some previous Hosts.
So, if the Pots 2, ,3 ,4 also like Pot 1, wouldn't be consisted by an regional criteria, but achievments, (past 2 WC's and FIFA Rankings) then the Pots would be look like this:
POT 1
S.Africa, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, England, Argentina, France
POT 2
Portugal, Netherlands, Mexico, USA, Switzerland, Paraguay, Ghana, R.Korea
POT 3.
Cameroon, Japan, Australia, Greece, IvoryC, Serbia, Denmark, Nigeria
POT 4.
Uruguay, Chile, Honduras, Slovakia, Slovenia, Algeria, N.Zealand, Korea DPR
Possible groups in a random (directed*) draw of these Pots:
A
S.Africa
USA
Serbia
Slovakia
B
Argentina
Mexico
Danemark
Slovenia
C
England
Ghana
Japan
Uruguay
D
Germany
Portugal
Cameroon
N.Zealand
E
Spain
Paraguay
Iv.Coast
Honduras
F
Italy
Switzerland
Australia
Algeria
G
Brasil
R.Korea
Greece
Chile
H
France
Holland
Nigeria
DPR Korea
phil | 21 November 2009
Seeded Pot: Brazil, Spain, Holland, Germany, England, Italy, Argentina, South Africa.
2nd Pot: 8 remaining European teams
3rd Pot: 5 African teams, USA, Mexico & Honduras
4th Pot: 4 Asian teams, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay & New Zealand.
I guarantee this is how it'll work.