UEFA Cup / Ben Lyttleton / 20 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Ben Lyttleton tells us why Frings aren't the same for Werder Bremen when the suspended Diego isn't around and how Shakhtar can benefit from his absence ahead of the UEFA Cup final on Wednesday night. Best bet: Shakhtar to win the match in 90 minutes @ [2.86].

Both this week's Uefa Cup finalists, and indeed three of the four semi-finalists, only entered this competition after dropping down from the Champions League. It's only the third time this has ever happened (after Arsenal-Galatasaray in 2000, and Feyenoord-Dortmund in 2002) and it may
explain why opposition is already gathering against next season's Europa League. But no-one can look at the quality of opposition that Werder Bremen and Shakhtar Donetsk have beaten on their way to the Istanbul final and doubt they deserve to be there.

Bremen have been among the favourites ever since they eliminated the early-season favourites, AC Milan, 3-3 on away goals in the Round of 32. After then, it was a fairly comfortable draw for them, as they beat relegation-threatened Saint-Etienne (3-2 on aggregate), an imploding Udinese (6-4) and, after an astonishing second-leg comeback, German rivals Hamburg 3-3 on away goals.

For Shakhtar, progression to Istanbul has been tougher, although they made light work of beating Tottenham (3-1), before edging past CSKA Moscow (2-1), Marseille (4-1) and Dynamo Kiev (3-2).

If lots of goals were the defining feature of Bremen's run to the final, for Shakhtar it was late strikes: five of their goals came in the last ten minutes of matches, summed up by Ilsinho's 90th minute-winner in the semi-final success over Dynamo.

The venue of Istanbul's Sukru Saracoglu Stadium, home to Fenerbahce, for the final may suit Bremen midfielder Mesut Ozil, born in Turkey as a Fenerbahce fan. The home fans may support Bremen even more given that Shakhtar boss Mircea Lucescu coached first Galatasaray and then Besiktas to the title in his time in Turkey.

How all this affects the market on Wednesday of course depends on who is available for the game: Shakhtar are missing Tomas Hubschmann through suspension but have Olexandr Kucher back; Bremen are missing striker Hugo Almeida through suspension, while centre-backs Naldo and Per Mertesacker both missed the weekend loss to Karlsruhe though Naldo is expected to be fit for the final. "As a Brazilian, I know a lot about the stars at Shakhtar, as many of them come from there," said Naldo. "Jadson takes excellent free-kicks but he's not as agile as Fernandinho, who is very quick and strong." In attack, Claudio Pizarro has a bruised foot but is likely to start, while Markus Rosenberg, with only two goals this calendar year, will replace Almeida.

But the key factor in the game rests with someone who definitely won't be playing: Bremen's playmaker Diego picked up his third yellow card of the campaign against Hamburg, and is ruled out of the final. "It's impossible to over-estimate his importance to the Bremen side: not just his six goals, scored in three of the last four rounds, but his vision and ability to create chances for Pizarro and his strike-partners. Bremen have to get used to being without Diego - he is off to Juventus next season - but his absence could come one game too soon for them.

The Diego factor affects most of the markets in this game: Bremen are ([2.7]) favourites to win the game in 90 minutes, but without their talisman, Shakhtar's price of ([2.9]) has to be better value. Similarly, the goals-market should be adjusted accordingly: Bremen's Uefa Cup games have averaged 3.25 goals, while in the last five league matches that Diego has missed, the goals tally has gone down to an average 2.6 (a figure boosted by Bremen's 5-0 tonking of Karlsruhe).

Shakhtar have been defensively sound throughout, only conceding five goals in their eight Uefa Cup matches: and those are two reasons for the Under-2.5 goals price to be attractive at [1.96]. The half-time score of 0-0 also seems a good price at [2.8], as
Bremen's all-out attacking reputation precedes them. Remember, without Diego, Bremen are not the same side!

Pizarro remains their biggest goal threat, with 28 goals in all competitions on his return to Germany, but his "to score" price is likely to be around the ([2.8]) mark, too short for my liking. Instead, look at Torsten Frings, around [8.0] as he takes spot-kicks when Diego is not around, and Naldo, who is a threat from set-pieces, at [10.0].

For Shakhtar, Yevhen Seleznov at around [4.5] represents better value than Luiz Adriano and Olexandr Gai at around [3.5] to score at anytime, while free-kick specialist Dario Srna, Shakhtar's skipper since the departure of Anatoliy Tymoschuk, is decent value at about ([8.0]).

Neither side have ever made it to a penalty shoot-out in Europe though Bremen have more recent experience of spot-kick drama after beating Hamburg in a shoot-out in the German Cup semi-final. Goalkeeper Tim Weise was their hero then and has since, inevitably, been labeled a penalty expert. Bremen are [10.5] to win on penalties in the Method of Victory market, but if, like me, you think Shakhtar will win in 90 minutes, the ([2.64]) looks a little short.