UEFA Cup / Dan Fitch / 11 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Manchester City are now the only English team left in the competition and if that wasn't pressure enough, they're also the new tournament favourites. Dan Fitch looks at their first leg encounter against AaB where he suggests you go with under 2.5 goals @ [2.04].

With the last round of the UEFA Cup characterised by high-flying and relegation threatened sides sending out reserves, it is no surprise that mid-table Manchester City have progressed furthest of the English teams. What is surprising is that City are the [6.8] favourites to win the competition.

I guess this short price reflects the fact that of all the likely challengers, it is City that have arguably been handed the kindest draw. Having dispensed with FC Copenhagen in the last round, Hughes' side once more face a Danish outfit in the shape of Aalborg BK.

AaB dropped down to this competition having finished third in their Champions League group, where they gained draws against Manchester United and Villarreal, as well as a draw and a win against Celtic.

Their Champions League campaign seems to have had an effect on their league form. Having won the Danish Superliga last season, they currently languish in fifth position.

City benefited from facing an FC Copenhagen side that had yet to resume their league campaign, following the winter break. AaB will not be so rusty. They beat Deportivo La Coruna home and away in the last round (though it should be pointed out that Depor were depleted by injuries) and have picked up a win and a draw in the resumed Superliga.

AaB are now unbeaten in 16 games, in a run which stretches back before the winter break to October. City have won their last 5 home games and I'm guessing that secretly Mark Hughes is confident of making it six.

The former Blackburn boss will welcome the return of Robinho to a forward line that will be without the injured Craig Bellamy. Micah Richards faces a fitness test on a damaged hamstring. AaB boss Magnus Pehrsson has just Steve Olfers and Emil Hauck unavailable.

City have broken the 2.5 goals barrier in their last 3 UEFA Cup outings, while AaB did likewise in both of their legs against Deportivo. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at [1.94], with unders at [2.04]. I fancy a low scoring game, as City will likely deploy Robinho as a lone striker, with Bellamy out and Jo on loan.

When the first goalscorer markets open on Betfair closer to kick off, expect Robinho to be priced at around [5.5], with Ireland and Elano at around [10]. For AaB, keep an eye on defender Michael Jacobsen who takes penalties and should be around [25.0].

Manchester City are [1.59], with the draw [4.1] and Aalborg [7.6]. I fancy a narrow City win with 1-0 at [8] and 2-0 at [8.2].

The draw/City is [4.8], with City/City at [2.46]. A City clean sheet is [2.26], with AaB [6.6] to not concede.