UEFA Cup / Ben Lyttleton / 08 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Ben Lyttleton likes the sound of two French sides meeting in the last four but, while Marseille may have the measure of Shakhtar, a rash of injuries could leave Paul Le Guen's men with problems against Dynamo Kiev. Best Bet: Marseille to qualify @ [2.02]

The prospect of an all-French UEFA Cup semi-final would delight the French authorities concerned about the country's drop in the UEFA co-efficients but there is a long way to go before France gears itself for another PSG-Marseille clash. First of all, both clubs have to get past Ukrainian opposition, with Marseille taking on Shakhtar Donetsk in their first-leg tie, while PSG host Dynamo Kiev at the Parc des Princes.

It might appear that Marseille's task looks the tougher: after all, Shakhtar have beaten Tottenham and CSKA Moscow since dropping into the competition as a third-placed Champions League side, and in Mircea Lucescu, have a canny coach well-schooled in European combat. Look a bit closer, though, and cracks do appear. In five seasons at Donetsk, Lucescu has yet to take Shakhtar out of the group phase and he is expected to stand down at the end of the season. The team are 15 points behind leaders Dynamo Kiev, whom they face in a Cup semi-final later this month, and recently sold their top scorer, Brandao, to, of all clubs, Marseille.

Their form is not particularly inspiring either: they lost at Metalurh Zaporizhya over the weekend, and are now only two points ahead of improving Metalist Kharkiv in the race for Champions League qualifyinh. "The weekend defeat is bad for our morale before the Marseille game, but we have to recover," said Lucescu. "I just think my players are still tired from the international fixtures."

Bear in mind also Marseille's form on the road: away from the pressure-cooker that is the Velodrome, they have only lost once all season, and although Donetsk is not quite Stade Gerland, the pressure from the home fans might play into the visitors' hands. With that in mind, the [2.14] price to lay Shakhtar looks tempting, as does the Marseille to qualify price of [2.02]. Also look out for Brandao in the To Score market against his former side.

I am not so sure that PSG will be able to make it a French double, though: their coach Paul Le Guen has spoken of the disadvantage at having to go to Kiev for the second leg, while PSG's improvement this season has been partly down to their lack of injuries, since they have such a small squad. Up till now, that is: Le Guen is missing half of his back-four with Sylvain Armand out with a knee strain and Loris Arnaud out for the season with a cruciate knee injury. Mamadou Sakho, meanwhile, is doubtful with an ankle twist although Zoumana Camara, suspended from the league win over Nice, should be back. PSG have been resting senior players for Uefa Cup ties before now, but Claude Makelele and Ludo Giuly are expected to start in Paris.

Their job will be to frustrate Dynamo, who extended their lead over Shakhtar at the weekend with a 2-0 win at Metalurh Donetsk. Under new Russian coach Yuri Semin, Dynamo are finally reproducing the form that made them so feared under Valery Lobanovsky in the 1990s. They are solid at the back (13 conceded in 22 games), and average over 2.5 goals per league game thanks to the strike partnership of Artem Milevsky, nine goals, and Guinea forward Ismael Bangoura, 12.
Playmaker Alexander Aliyev is in line for Player of the Year award, having added 11 efforts of his own.

Betfair's French expert James Eastham has taken to backing over 2.5 goals in PSG's home matches because of their wobbly defence but in Europe, Le Guen often plays an extra holding midfielder at home in a bid to keep things tight. That's why the [1.63] price for under 2.5 goals, although a little short, is worth a look, while Dynamo are [1.89] to reach the semi-finals.

Udinese knocked out holders Zenit St Petersburg in the last round, but since then, they have lost back-to-back league games and lost Antonio di Natale through injury. For all the talent in their squad, coach Pasquale Marino is struggling to get the best out of his players. Betfair's European Football Show expert Gabriele Marcotti has warned that, "there is a cancer in the club" as Udinese's slide down the table continues.

Their opponents, Werder Bremen, have already got past AC Milan in the competition and with their league form inconsistent, are [5.1] favourites to win the competition. Bremen are [1.72] to win the first leg, and [1.57] to qualify while the over 2.5 goals price is a more tempting [1.83]. Claudio Pizarro has shrugged off his off-field problems and scored four in his last two games while Diego is back to his best form despite eyeing a summer move to Juventus. All signs point to a German victory: but will they be able to hold onto it next week?