UEFA Cup / Ben Lyttleton / 17 March 2009 / Leave a comment

As we reach the business end of the UEFA Cup, Ben Lyttleton tells us why the French trio of PSG, Marseille and Saint Etienne have bigger fish to fry than this competition and how the latter's opponents Werder Bremen, may well turn out to be this year's champions.

The French league authorities have become so worried recently at the prospect of France's Uefa co-efficient falling below those of Romania and Russia that they have considered offering incentives to Ligue 1 sides for reaching the Uefa Cup last four. By the end of this week, the Uefa Cup can expect to be at least one French team shorter given the approach that Saint-Etienne coach Alain Perrin claimed he will take to Tuesday's visit of Werder Bremen, who hold a 1-0 first-leg lead.

"After every European game, we either lose or drop points and the Uefa Cup has become a drag," said Perrin after another late goal (Saint-Etienne have conceded three injury-time goals in their last four games) dropped Les Verts into Ligue 1's relegation zone. "I don't like the idea of continuing to drop points in the league in April because of the Uefa Cup and we're not going
to play to qualify against Bremen." Strong words from the coach, who has since toned down his comments and claimed his side will "battle to qualify".

Perrin's original statement is not the only reason to back Bremen to win the game at ([2.56]) and to qualify at ([1.31]). The German side, under-achievers in the Bundesliga this season, are realistic Cup contenders at ([7.6]) after beating AC Milan in the last round. They beat Stuttgart 4-0 at the weekend and though they tend not to be so prolific away from home,
should have enough quality with Claudio Pizarro and Markus Rosenberg in good form to fulfil Perrin's wishes.

The two other French teams left in the competition, PSG and Marseille, are both ensconced in a title battle with Lyon. PSG's squad is a thin one, and coach Paul Le Guen has been using the Uefa Cup to rest some of his older players, like Mikael Landreau and Ludovic Giuly, as the season catches up with them. He played three defensive midfielders against Sporting Braga, who are in decent league form with one defeat in their last seven. It would be easy to back the bigger name in this one, but bear in mind that Le Guen will rest more players before the weekend's vital league match at Toulouse, while Braga rested four first-team players - Meyong, Luis Aguiar, Renteria and Evaldo - to keep them fresh for this game. That's why Braga, at ([2.06]), represents the value to qualify. The under-2.5 goals market at ([1.68]) is also interesting if, as expected, Guillaume Hoarau misses out along with Giuly.

Marseille are perhaps France's best chance of continuing in the competition,even if they conceded an away goal after taking an early 2-0 lead in the first leg at the Velodrome. Marseille seem back on an even footing after a January wobble which saw owner Robert Louis-Dreyfus attack president Pape Diouf, while coach Eric Gerets was reportedly close to throwing in the towel. Two months later, Gerets is still no nearer to knowing what his best attacking formation is, but with Mamadou Niang back from injury and challenging Brandao and Sylvain Wiltord for a starting-place, at least he has options. Hatem Ben Arfa, a huge disappointment since joining from Lyon, has saved some of his best performances this season for the Uefa Cup and Gerets has a much larger squad than Le Guen, so can afford to tinker without affecting the side's balance too much (in fact, he has been tinkering for most of the season).

Ajax coach Marco van Basten will also have to change his team, but not through choice: Gregory van der Wiel was sent off in Marseille and is suspended, as is fellow defender Thomas Vermaelen. Also keep an eye on midfielder Daley Blind, son of former coach Danny who rejected a move to Arsenal last year. Van Basten has had major problems this season, as fans have stormed training and players have grown unhappy with his tactics. Maybe the Dutchman is a coach like Ruud Gullit, someone who was too good as a player to be able to transmit simple messages as a coach. Either way, Marseille are the pick at ([1.62]) to qualify.

There's also a new coach at Galatasaray, who won this competition back in 2000. Bulent Korkmaz was one of the heroes in that epic final win over Arsenal, and he is now in charge after replacing Michael Skibbe last month. As a player he was a warrior, and as a coach he demands that battling spirit from his players, which is why he was pleased that they were able to hold on for over half-an-hour with ten men in the 1-1 draw at Hamburg. Martin Jol's
side will be without striker Mladen Petric while Piotr Trochowski is also unlikely to be fit - the absence of those two tips the balance towards the Turks, who are ([1.74]) to reach the quarter-finals.