UEFA Cup Bets: Don't take anything for granted at this stage of proceedings

UEFA Cup / Matthew Walton / 16 March 2009 / 1 Comments

As the likes of Manchester City and Udinese take 2-0 leads into the second legs against Aalborg and Zenit respectively, "Magical" Matthew Walton looks at the stats to assess how important it is to take advantages and play at home in second legs of UEFA Cup ties.

Despite winning the first leg of their UEFA Cup tie with Aalborg by a comfortable margin, Manchester City don't face a necessarily straightforward task in converting that lead into a place in the QF's of the competition.

For many that 2-0 win at Eastlands could have been more emphatic and the second leg in Denmark should really have been little more than a formality for the tournament favourites - City currently trade at [5.8] to win their first piece of silverware since 1976.

This sent us thumbing through the formbooks in order to assess exactly how useful that kind of first leg result has been in recent times and whether City's odds to qualify for the next round - their price is a rather skinny looking [1.09] - represents any real value based on how other teams have fared when they have secured a similar first leg cushion.

The data we studied was the collateral form over the past five seasons, the period since the UEFA Cup format was last changed from a straight knock-out tournament to one which included a mini-group phase. This change started with the 2004/05 competition and will remain in place when the event is re-incarnated next season as the Europa League.

The basic facts are these. Since this change some four and a half season ago, there have been 15 occasions when a team playing at home in the first leg of a tie registered a victory by exactly two clear goals.

Back in 2004/05 it happened twice. Valencia beat Steaua Bucharest 2-0 at home in the Round 32 before losing 2-0 away and going out on penalties. CSKA Moscow beat Benfica 2-0 at home then drew 1-1 away to progress 3-1 on aggregate. So on that basis it's only 50/50 that City progress!

In the season 2005/06 the 2-0 first leg score appeared four times with the team who secured that valuable first leg win qualifying on three occasions. Real Betis did it in the Round 32 but needed extra time in the second leg at AZ Alkmaar to progress and Rapid Bucharest beat Hamburg 2-0 at home in the Round 16 before losing 3-1 away to squeeze through on away goals.

Basel then twice secured a 2-0 first leg lead. In the Round 16 it was enough to beat Strasbourg (as they drew 2-2 in France) but Middlesbrough fans will recall the QF tie when Boro scored in the 90th minute to win 4-1 and defeat the Swiss side 4-3.

In 2006/07 it was another 50/50 split as Lens made a 3-1 first leg lead see them home against Panathinaikos, as they drew the return fixture 0-0 away in Greece, but Newcastle blew a 4-2 lead against AZ Alkmaar by losing 2-0 in Holland, thus going out on away goals.

Last season saw five instances. Sporting Lisbon, PSV, Fiorentina and Rangers all progressed after 2-0 home wins but Marseille wasted a 3-1 first leg win in the Round 16 to go out to the eventual winners Zenit St. Petersburg.

This year, 2008/09, in the Round 32, both PSG and Shakhtar (against Spurs) won the first leg 2-0 and both are now in the Round 16.

That makes for a total of 15 times when the side playing at home first has secured a two goal advantage. Of those 15 sides, 11 have gone on to qualify which is 73% making the odds for City to qualify for the QF's, based solely upon these statistics, a [1.36] chance. Their current price, as we've seen above, is [1.09]. As such, much more of a 'lay' than a 'back' given those terms.

Incidentally, one other side won their first leg 2-0 last week, that was Udinese against the defending champions, Zenit St. Petersburg. The Italians are priced at a better, but still none to generous, [1.27] to make the last eight of the competition.

These two scenarios illustrate the kind of examples we highlight week after week in these articles - namely, those where the available data and Betfair markets are clearly at odds and, as a result, there is a window of opportunity to exploit. In this respect, there are much worse bets to consider in the coming week than Zenit [4.2] and Aalborg at a huge [11.0] to overturn their first leg deficits.

Another relevant point to make with regards to this whole debate is the fact that, historically, sides playing the second leg of UEFA Cup ties at home (having played away in the first match) are statistically much more likely to qualify.

During the period in question (2004/05 to 2008/09) we've seen the Round 32 played on five occasions, which makes for a total of 80 ties. Here, the side playing at home in the second leg has gone through on 44 occasions (55%).

In the four Round 16's played prior to this season (2004/05 to 2007/08) the figures read 23 of 32 (that's 71% of home sides, like Zenit and Aalborg, at home in the second leg, going through to the next phase of the competition).

It's 9 from 16 (56%) in the QF's and 5 from 8 in the SF's (62%). Again in favour of the team who play the second leg of the tie at home.

That makes a total of 81 from 136, or 59%, across the board regardless of whether a team won, drew or even lost the first tie. That would be reflected in Betfair odds of [1.69] for any random side to win the tie at their own ground.

With this in mind, of interest in this week's other Round 16 ties are St. Etienne who are [4.1] to beat Werder Bremen having lost the first leg 1-0 in Germany, Metallist Kharkhiv who are [3.65] to comeback from losing 1-0 at Dynamo Kiev and Shakhtar [3.05] who are also one goal down to CSKA Moscow.

Both Ajax (lost first leg 2-1 at Marseille) who are [2.64] to qualify and Sporting Braga [2.06] to make the QF's after a 0-0 drew away to PSG also fall into this category.

There is an old adage in European competition that it's always best to play the first leg of a tie away from home and then finish the job back on your own patch. Well, if this is the case, it's clear that both Aalborg and Zenit have left themselves quite a lot to do ... but the data clearly shows that it can be done and their prices on Betfair, as a result, are generous.

As for the round's other incomplete ties there are certainly value prices to be had with a number of sides still very much in with a chance of progressing - with all available at decent odds against prices.

In summary, nobody is guaranteed a place in the QF's of the UEFA Cup ... whatever the first leg result.