The Betfair Contrarian: Why Real Madrid will win El Clasico

Spanish Football / The Betfair Contrarian / 25 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Real's big summer signings will be integral to their chances of winning at Camp Nou

"The visitors are desperate for revenge... Barcelona thumped Real Madrid 6-2 at the Bernabeu in May to all but seal the title... Real don't tolerate anyone showing them up, least of all Barca."

Last time they met, Barca thumped Real 6-2. However, with Cristiano Ronaldo returning from injury, the Betfair Contrarian believes that Los Blancos can get their revenge at the Nou Camp on Sunday.

For the first time since Pep Guardiola strode into the Nou Camp dugout in the summer of 2008 and swiftly silenced all doubters, Barcelona look vulnerable. After stylishly cruising to the treble last year, they are not yet mathematically guaranteed a place in the last 16 of the Champions League and suddenly trail Real Madrid in La Liga. Remarkably, given this sudden fragility, they are [1.92] to win the first Clasico of the campaign on Sunday.

The Contrarian is already figuring out how to spend his winnings after backing Real Madrid at 4.2. Here's why...

Real Madrid have the momentum...

Barcelona looked almost certain to head into the first Clasico of the season in top spot but the pendulum has swung. Three matches ago, Guardiola's side were three points clear, but will start Sunday's clash at the Nou Camp a point behind Real Madrid. The last four Clasicos have all been won by the team who kicked off in a higher league position.

Barcelona are prone to European hangovers...

Barcelona improved to beat Inter Milan on Tuesday, although their easy win owed as much to the Italian's ineptitude as their own brilliance, and they tend to slack off domestically after significant success in Europe. Their last home win over an Italian side was an assured 4-1 triumph over Udinese in the group stage four years ago was followed by an underwhelming trio of draws against Real Zaragoza, Deportivo and Panathinaikos. They also secured a spot in the quarter-finals with a home victory over Celtic in March 2008 to keep their treble bid alive then lost the following league game at home to Villarreal. And last years gloriou's 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge was followed by a 3-3 home tie with Villarreal.

The visitors are desperate for revenge...

When Barcelona thumped Real Madrid 6-2 at the Bernabeu in May to all but seal the title, it became instantly clear that Los Blancos interim manager Juande Ramos wasn't keeping his job. It mattered not that they had won 17 and drawn one of their previous 18 league games, Real Madrid don't tolerate anyone showing them up, least of all Barcelona. As Guardiola will now discover, there is a huge price to pay for a big Clasico triumph: the embarrassed party go all out for revenge.

Barcelona's previous win at the Bernabeu was an emphatic 3-0 success four years ago but Madrid responded by going five Clasicos unbeaten. The shoe was on the other foot in May 2008 when Barcelona were humiliatingly obliged to form a guard of honour for newly crowned champions Real Madrid and were battered 4-1. Barcelona responded by doing the double the following season.

Barcelona's home form will count for nothing

The hosts biggest advantage is their formidable domestic home record this season: played seven, won seven. However, they have yet to welcome a top-five side, were beaten by Rubin Kazan in the Champions League and have a poor record against Real Madrid at the Nou Camp. They have won just two of their last nine home clashes with their bitter rivals, losing more over that period, and haven't won successive meetings with them in Catalonia all decade.

Cristiano Ronaldo is back

Real Madrid have received the best news they could possibly have wished for ahead of this match - Cristiano Ronaldo has returned to the squad for the Champions League game against FC Zurich, having missed 10 ties through injury. During that time, they have won five (three by one goal), drawn two and lost three, averaging 1.7 points a game. Ronaldo played in their first seven matches, all of which they won. He also helpfully scored nine goals in those seven, with Real Madrid averaging 3.43 goals in those encounters compared to 1.5 in the ones he missed. Those stats suggest that they are 1.3 points and 1.93 goals a match better off with Ronaldo available.