The Betfair Contrarian: Why Barcelona won't win La Liga

Spanish Football / The Betfair Contrarian / 29 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

Barcelona's success last season has been overshadowed by Real Madrid's unprecedented spending spree. The Catalans remain favourites to win La Liga but they've shot themselves in the foot by spending £40 million on Zlatan Ibrahimovic and letting Samuel Eto'o go. The Contrarian provides six reasons why you should be laying Barcelona at [1.91].

Barcelona will struggle without Eto'o

Pep Guardiola decided this summer that it was time to cut ties with Eto'o but Barcelona may live to regret getting rid of the Cameroon striker. In the five years before Eto'o arrived, Barcelona won nothing and spent three seasons outside the top three. In his five years with the club they won the title three times and the Champions League twice. There were two seasons where Eto'o failed to start over 20 games and in both of those they failed to win either trophy. The 28-year-old averaged at least 0.65 goals per league start in each of his five campaigns with the club.

Ibrahimovic won't score as many...

There's not much evidence to suggest Ibrahimovic is ready to replace Eto'o, let alone any to support Barcelona's decision to value him so much higher. Last season was the first time Ibrahimovic scored over 20 goals in a league season - his previous best was 17. In that sense, David Villa and Diego Forlan - who have both scored over 20 goals twice in the last five years for La Liga teams who weren't chasing the title - would have been safer choices.

..and is considered a big-game bottler

The Swede failed to score in any of his seven clashes with Inter's biggest domestic rivals, Juventus and AC Milan, over the last two seasons. Whereas Eto'o has scored in Barcelona's two recent Champions League finals, Ibrahimovic only scored one goal throughout last year's tournament, despite figuring in eight games - furthering doubts over whether he can be relied on when it matters most.

Real Madrid have got a new president

Unless you've been living under a rock, you'll be aware that Florentino Perez returned to Real Madrid as president this summer. The last five men who served as the club's president for a period of six months or longer - Luis de Carlos, Ramon Mendoza, Lorenzo Sanz, Perez and Ramon Calderon - all won the title in their first full season in charge. To ensure the trend continues, Perez has signed a star player from the Premier League (Cristiano Ronaldo), Serie A (Kaka) and Ligue 1 (Karim Benzema) as well as Spanish internationals Raul Albiol and, imminently, Alvaro Arbeloa.

Pellegrini has a good record against Barcelona

New Real Madrid manager Manuel Pellegrini had a good track record against Barcelona while in charge of Villarreal, winning three of his last five league clashes with the Catalan club while losing just one. The Chilean also guided Villarreal to an impressive second-place finish two seasons ago, finishing 10 points ahead of Barcelona and consequently forcing the eventual Champions League winners to qualify for last season's competition. Therefore, there is reason to believe that Pellegrini can improve Real Madrid's record in El Clasico, after Barca did the double over them last season. If Madrid had won both games, they would have ended the campaign three points clear of Guardiola's side.

Champions League hangover

Just one of the last five Champions League winners managed to win their domestic league the following season: Manchester United, whose third successive title last season owed a lot to their domestic rivals' tendency to self-destruct. Teams who have suffered a hangover include 2003-04 champions Porto, who have won the Portuguese Liga in six of the last seven seasons, with their only failure coming after European glory. Barcelona also failed to win the league the year after their Champions League and La Liga double in 2006.