Spanish Football / Matthew Walton / 19 January 2009 / Leave a comment

"Magical" Matthew Walton on why it's easy to take certain things for granted when Real and Barca play at home in La Liga and why these assumptions rarely represent good betting value.

It's no surprise to see the majority of money wagered on each week's Primera Liga matches centred around the big two, Real Madrid and Barcelona.

This can be attributed to any number of factors. A general familiarity amongst traders with both teams, the weight of support by fans of each side, the fact these games tend to televised more often or, quite simply, the results of either club are usually a lot easier to predict.

All are perfectly valid reasons to get involved with both Barcelona and Real Madrid.

It also explains why so many Betfair traders will get heavily stuck into their respective matches this coming weekend against Numancia and Deportivo. More so as both are playing at home and both are fully expected to win.

For many it will provide the perfect opportunity to 'buy some money' whether they are backing the result, the correct score, the HT/FT or playing in the over/under market. Bias your actions firmly in favour of the home side and you won't go far wrong.

Well, on the face of it, that's probably true. However, as you'll know by now, we don't tend to take such matters at face value. Those who adopt a superficial approach might simply opt to back a thumping Barca win or a cosy Madrid victory - but the question is whether a statistical assault of the markets would recommend the same policy.

In other words, do our preconceptions about Real Madrid and Barcelona really stack up in terms of value? Should we bet with our head or with our instinct?

This coming weekend both sides play at home as table-toppers Barcelona host Numancia on Saturday evening and their nearest rivals Real Madrid entertain Deportivo on Sunday. So what would the popular view be of these games ... both sides will win, they'll probably end up doing so by a couple of goals, maybe keep a clean sheet along the way, and the crowd will see an entertaining match with three or more goals being scored. That sound about right?

Well, let's see if the statistics back up this view and, more to the point, whether there's any value to be had by presuming that both matches will pan out entirely according to the script.

We've trawled through the data from the last five seasons asking a number of questions and using the results to locate the best areas of value in these matches.

First up, will both teams win? Well, given their pre-eminent position in Spanish football, more than likely.

During the period of investigation, some five and a half seasons, Barcelona have played 106 home matches at the Nou Camp. They have won 76, drawn 22 and lost just 8 times. Likewise, Real Madrid have played 106 matches at the Bernabeu, winning 77 times with 12 draws and 17 defeats.

That gives you an average of 76.5 wins from 106 games each or a 72% success rate. In other words, the sides should be about [1.38] to win any given home match. In actual fact, this coming weekend Barcelona are [1.19] to win and Real Madrid are [1.43].

Hence, on a strict application of these figures, we could say that Barca are poor value for their match but Madrid are actually a fair bet. More so, in the case of the Galacticos, as Real have won 8 of their last 10 home matches against Deportivo - or 80% - which equates to true odds of [1.25].

How about correct scores ... many will see it as Barcelona winning comfortably and Real Madrid having to work a bit harder against pretty decent opposition.

Looking back over the past five seasons, the most popular results of home matches for Barcelona have been either 2-0 or 3-0. And that feels about right for a game against struggling Numancia.

With a 2-0 result happening in 10 of the 106 home games you'd be looking at true odds getting on for [11.00] for that score to be repeated whilst the 3-0 (found in 14 of 106 matches) should be nearer [7.50]. But go onto the exchange and you'll find almost the complete opposite with 2-0 looking a bit short at a fraction over [8.0] and 3-0 appearing the more tempting option at a generous looking [12.0].

As for Real Madrid, they should win but it won't necessarily be easy. And, strangely enough, it's the 3-1 scoreline which has most readily appeared for them over the period in question - and just look at their last match against Osasuna. You guessed it, a 3-1 home win.

Appearing 14 times in their last 106 home games that's another bet which comes in at true odds of [7.50] - but on Betfair you'll get the thick end of [13.00]. So there's some value to be had!

What about the over/under market ... you'd expect goals in both matches. These are top sides, who play attacking football, are both at home and against weaker opposition.

However, starting with Barcelona, in the 106 home matches studied they produced over 2.5 goals on only 62 occasions. That makes for 58% of the games played or true odds for the 'over' of [1.71].

As for Real Madrid the figure is a little better, 68 of 106 matches or 64% of the games played produced over 2.5 goals. That makes for around [1.57].

Consequently the Betfair price of [1.37] for Barca looks less than generous whilst the [1.65] for Madrid's game appears a much better bet. And the same pattern was also repeated for the 'over/under 3.5 goals' market.

Moreover, if we consider other markets such as the half-time result (where, again, a lay of the home side winning comes out best on the generated data) and also by definition the HT/FT market which is also a perilous one for backers of a straight 'win-win' for either Barcelona or Real Madrid. Layers do seem better catered for in this respect.

The data for the first goalscorer markets, however, does point firmly to a 'home' player opening the scoring but thereafter you need to bring in a whole new set of figures to determine which particular player is the best option.

Overall, our investigations found the popular held views that these two all-conquering sides, when playing at home, were (a) bankers to win (b) bound to be leading at half-time and (c) would create a match with plenty of goals, to be hard to justify in terms of value.

Yes, value could well be found - as with the Madrid win, certain correct scores options, going low on Barca goals but higher on Madrid - but over the long-term there is probably more evidence to support going against popular opinion than following it.

Thankfully, Betfair allows you to do just that! You can still make money out of the big two - and plenty of it - but it won't always be by following your first instincts!