Real Madrid v Barcelona Betting: Frustration for Cristiano Ronaldo

Spanish Football / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 18 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Cristiano Ronaldo's scoring record against Barcelona is pretty poor...by his standards.

"The better bet might be to back both teams to score. This would have paid out in five of the last six and with neither defence looking particularly great at the moment, that looks a safe option at 1.68."

The first leg takes place at the Bernabeu but home advantage alone is unlikely to mean Real take a lead into the second leg of this Copa Del Rey tie. And there could be further frustration for Cristiano Ronaldo, says Jamie Pacheco

I'm not sure whether the draw for the Copa Del Rey is done with a computer or whether there's a whole live televised spectacle with ex-players and pundits picking brightly coloured balls out of a bowl. By the way, I've always wondered why Club Executives present at the draws feel the need to furiously scribble down the team (or teams when it's the Champions or Europa League group stages) that their club is up against. Are their memories that bad? Do they not have iphones and Blackberries to check in case they do forget? Either way, by Real Madrid and Barcelona being drawn together before the final stage, we, as football fans, are treated to an extra game between these two.

Match Odds

How you play this market completely depends on what you consider to be the most important factors.

Real Madrid have home advantage and may feel that, having beaten Barcelona in last year's final of this very competition, they have the upper hand. Jose Mourinho's men are five points clear of their rivals in the league so there's an argument to say they're actually in better shape than Barca this season. Should they really be a bigger price than Barcelona at the Bernabeu?

Barcelona may not be at their absolute best. A couple of weeks ago they allowed a 1-0 lead at Espanyol to turn into a draw though the stats (see the attempts to post (sic) column) suggests they were unlucky while on Sunday they were 2-0 up, allowed Betis to get to 2-2 and only went ahead again after their opponents had a man sent off, eventually winning 4-2. But this is Barcelona, the same Barcelona who recovered from going a goal down within a minute to beat Real Madrid at the Bernabeu back in December. The same team who, since Pep Guardiola has been in charge have won every competition they've entered (bar the 2010/11 Champions League and last year's Copa Del Rey) including numerous European Super Cups, Spanish Super Cups and World Club Championships. [2.7] on the best club team in the world to win a match? Huge price, surely.

Don't rule out the draw. If we take every match played between these two since the start of last season, four out of eight have been stalemates. That of course includes last year's Copa Del Rey final because it was 0-0 after 90 minutes. They also drew 1-1 at the Bernabeu in last season's La Liga and second leg of the Champions League and 2-2 in the first leg of this year's Spanish Super Cup. The draw is [3.5].

If Real Madrid haven't beaten Barcelona in 90 minutes in their last 12 attempts they're unlikely to do so here. That's what the stats say. So laying Real at is an option at [2.88], as is backing Barcelona on the draw/no bet market at [1.9].The preference is probably for the latter.

Both Teams to score

There's no real bias in terms of over/under 2.5 goals patterns. The last three have all been overs but the four before that were 'unders'. The one before that was of course a certain 5-0. The better bet might be to back both teams to score. This would have paid out in five of the last six and with neither defence looking particularly great at the moment, that looks a safe option at [1.68].

To Score

If Cristiano Ronaldo is wondering why he hasn't won the Ballon D'Or more often he need look no further than his goalscoring record against Barcelona. Because let's face it, Barcelona are the team stopping his Real Madrid from winning trophies. In his last eight matches against Guardiola' s men (not including last year's Copa final as that was in extra-time) he's scored just twice. Not a bad return for a normal player. But the point is he isn't a normal player.

His overall goalscoring record explains why he's as short as [2.2] to score at anytime even though his record against Barcelona suggests that's a poor price. Rather than rising to the occasion on the biggest stage Ronaldo seems to either go into his shell or get visibly frustrated by the fact things aren't going his way. Something we've also witnessed when he plays at major tournaments for Portugal. We don't care which but we're definitely laying him at that price.

Best bet: Back both teams to score at [1.68]

Lay Cristiano Ronaldo to score at [2.2]