The Betfair Contrarian: Why Barcelona won't win La Liga

Spanish Football / The Betfair Contrarian / 04 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

The champions-elect are wobbling in Spain and Real Madrid are fast closing a once enormous gap. The Betfair Contrarian says get on Los Blancos at once!

The Contrarian loves an underdog, but he also loves a team with a huge lead, especially one mentally fragile enough to throw it away. Just three weeks ago Barcelona were 12 points clear of Real Madrid and looked invincible. However, a run of one draw and two defeats since has seen their advantage shrink to just four points. Suddenly the sages who declared the title race over before Christmas are looking sheepish, and while Barca are still [1.3 favourites, the Contrarian implores you to take the [4.3] available on Real Madrid before it's too late. Here's why Pep Guardiola's side will be left wondering how they threw it all away:

The Ramos revolution
Real Madrid have won ten consecutive league matches under Juande Ramos, during which time they have faced three of the top eight sides (Valencia, Villarreal and Deportivo). Their only domestic loss came in Ramos' opening game when two goals in the last seven minutes saw his injury-hit side lose at the Nou Camp. If they had managed to hold on in that game they would just be one point off the top spot now.

An unforeseen collapse has handed Madrid the initiative
Barcelona have dropped more points in their last three fixtures than they had done throughout the first 22 games of the season, illustrating just how unexpected their sudden loss of form has been. The Catalan club had picked up 59 points from a possible 66 prior to this stumble, meaning they had missed out on just seven points all season. By taking just one point from the last nine, however, they have dropped eight in the space of 16 days.

Real Madrid finish stronger
In three of the last four seasons, Real Madrid have taken more points than Barcelona from their final 13 league matches. In the only other year (2005-06), there were just two points in it, whereas last year Real Madrid took 16 points more in the closing stages of the season. Los Blancos' ability to finish strongly also won them the title two years ago. On that occasion, they trailed Barca by five points at this stage of the season but recovered those points over the final 13 games.

Barcelona will need to spread resources
In the Champions League, it looks unlikely that Real Madrid will overcome Liverpool while Barcelona should conquer Lyon at home with an away goal in the bag. That would leave Real Madrid with only La Liga to focus on until May whereas Guardiola's men will still be competing in Europe and for the Copa del Rey. Last season Barcelona went through to the Champions League and Copa del Rey semi-finals and suffered for it. In the final 13 games of last season, 15 of the 19 other La Liga teams picked up more points than them.

The El Clasico advantage is Real Madrid's
The second meeting between the two sides this season takes places at the Bernabeu, which clearly favours Madrid. Real have won three of their last four home games against Barcelona, who haven't done the Clasico double in any of the last eleven seasons. In addition, Juande Ramos won his last four home league matches against Barcelona, beating them 2-1 with Real Betis in 2001-02, then triumphing 5-1 against them with Malaga in 2003-04 before overcoming them 3-2 and 2-1 with Sevilla.

Historical trends favour Los Blancos
Real Madrid have won the title in each of the last two seasons and just three of Barcelona's eighteen La Liga wins have come in years where Spain's most successful side were reigning champions. Ramos' side are the only ever club to have retained the crown for at least three consecutive seasons and they have achieved that feat on four separate occasions.