La Liga Weekend Matches: Real Madrid know the power of four

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 27 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Iker Casillas faces a seriously out-of-form Real Zaragoza attack this weekend

"Real Madrid have scored at least four times in 7/8 home games with teams that aren't Barcelona"

As Manolo Jimenez drags a sorry-looking Real Zaragoza to the Bernabeu for a beating, Tobias Gourlay ponders the decline of Villarreal and how to make money out of it

Real Madrid v Real Zaragoza
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Real [1.09] Zaragoza [42.0] draw [14.5]

Another easy league win follows another failure to beat Barcelona?

Yep. Real are unopposable at home - unless they're playing Pep's team.

For variety's sake this column will run you through a slightly different set of stats from last week's. The inspiration is still Opta's.

Real have won their last 14 league games against teams that don't play in blaugrana and their all-time home league record at home to Zaragoza is W47-D6-L4.

Bottom-of-the-table Zaragoza have the joint-worst away record in this season's competition (W0-D3-L7) and are 12 matches without a win anywhere. Three more games with no joy and they'll have matched their all-time worst streak.

One faint, faint glimmer of hope for the visitors: Barcelona aside, they are the last team to win at the Bernabeu (3-2 in April last year). But Real had given up the chase by then. This time they're leading the race.

Well, at least it's a good chance for Iker Casillas to keep a rare clean sheet. Real have conceded in 8/9 at the Bernabeu so far this season, but Zaragoza have scored just twice in their last eight league games. Unfortunately, the market does not recognise the rarity of a Real clean sheet and is offering only [1.61] on Casillas going unbeaten.

If only Zaragoza were a bit more prolific - they've scored once in the three games since Manolo Jimenez replaced Javier Aguirre - they could perhaps have kept up with Real until half-time - like 4/8 non-Catalan visitors to the Bernabeu - before capitulating in the second half. Draw/Real Madrid is on offer at [6.6], but it's a double-result that usually requires the away team to score before half-time in order to finish the first-half 1-1.

A week ago, this column made a bit of money backing Any Unquoted in the Correct Score market. The price has plummeted for the visit of Zaragoza, however. We were paid out at [3.0] last Sunday; this time you would only be rewarded at evens. But because it's been a winner in 7/8 league games against teams that aren't Barcelona, it's still a value bet.

Recommended Bet: Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ [2.02]

Villarreal v Barcelona
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Villarreal [13.0] Barcelona [1.29] draw [6.4]

In the summer, this fixture looked like it would be among the trickiest that Barcelona would face all season. The champions' all-time record at El Madrigal is only W6-D1-L5, even if Pep Guardiola has won 3/3 here. And Villarreal finished fourth last year.

But the Yellow Submarine from the Valencia suburbs sold a couple of Spain internationals before the season began - Santi Cazorla and Joan Capdevila - and lost Italian star striker Giuseppe Rossi to a season-ending injury in October. There is still talent in the ranks - Nilmar and Borja Valero have more than their fair share of it - but Villarreal sank to 17th at Christmas.

Unlike many Spanish clubs, it takes a lot for them to sack a manager, but that was enough. Juan Carlos Garrido, a long-serving club man, was fired and replaced by someone else who had worked his way up coaching the reserve teams, Jose Molina. The former goalie will be expected to uphold the tradition of sharp, accurate passing football established by Manuel Pellegrini.

This weekend he comes up against the masters of that style. Andres Iniesta and Alexis Sanchez were injured in the Copa del Rey clash with Real Madrid, and some of the others might have been tired by it - it was the tenth clasico since the start of last season, after all - but Pep's team are strong favourites to record a second consecutive away win for only the second time this season.

Those injuries are important because they improve Cesc Fabregas' chances of starting the game. If he does start, his record of scoring in five of the six away games he's played this season make him a value bet in the goalscorer markets market. And, although Barca have struggled on the road this season, scoring first has not been a problem. Like Real, who have a much better record, they have hit the net before their opponents in 14 of their last 20 away matches. Fabregas should become available around [7.0] in the First Goalscorer market.

Recommended Bet: Back Cesc Fabregas to be First Goalscorer @ [7.0]

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay