La Liga Weekend Matches: Betis cannot breach Camp Nou-ght

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 13 January 2012 / 1 Comments

Barcelona are yet to concede a league goal at home this season

"In each of Real’s last 16 away wins they have been ahead at half-time"

Tobias Gourlay expects more entertainment than most from Sevilla and Espanyol this weekend. He's less hopeful about Real Betis' chances of breaking through Barcelona's record-breaking defence

Sevilla v Espanyol
Saturday 17:00
Sevilla [1.83] Espanyol [5.1] draw [3.65]

Opta reports that Sevilla have won more matches against Espanyol (59) than any other team in the history of La Liga. Marcelino's team are comfortably odds-on to win at home on Saturday afternoon, however, and the Match Odds is not the main focus of this column's attention.

Sevilla are seventh going into the latest round of matches and very much involved in the quest for fourth place. Such has been the slow pace of the race so far that UEFA should consider withdrawing the prize. There are teams in Italy - Napoli, for example - who might easily finish fourth and be more deserving of a place in next season's Champions League than anyone from La Liga who is not Barcelona, Real Madrid or Valencia.

The slow pace is allowing Sevilla to keep up. We first mentioned their problems a few weeks ago and they have not been solved in the meantime. They have managed only one clean sheet in six at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan and all six of those games have gone Over 2.5 Goals. Go further back into Gregorio Manzano's reign last season and 13 of the last 15 league games there have produced Over 2.5 Goals.

With both teams having scored in each of Espanyol's last five matches - home and away - it's a surprise to see Over 2.5 Goals as long as [2.10].

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.10]

Real Mallorca v Real Madrid
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Mallorca [13.0] Real [1.32] draw [5.8]

Real Madrid increased their lead ahead of Barcelona at the top of La Liga to five points last weekend, thrashing the previously unthrashable Granada 5-1 before their rivals were held to a draw by Espanyol.

Jose Mourinho's men are first up again this weekend, travelling to Mallorca for a match on Saturday evening that could see them climb a daunting eight points clear. Having won six in a row on the road, Real are heavy favourites to make it seven in the Balearics. Unfortunately, there are just pennies to be made backing them to win at [1.32].

There is another way, however. In each of Real's last 16 away wins they have been ahead at half-time. Back Real Madrid/Real Madrid in the Half Time/Full Time market and, if they make it 17 in a row, you will be paid out at [1.81].

The flip side of the stat is that when Mourinho's Real are not ahead at half-time on the road they do not tend to go on and win in 90 minutes. In fact, they have failed to take three points from any of the last six away games that they have been drawing or losing after 45 minutes. Something to think about in-play.

Still looking for something else? Opta tells us that if Real keep up this season's rate of scoring until the end of the campaign they will finish with 29 more goals than anyone else has ever managed in a single La Liga season. They have won nine of their last 13 matches by at least two goals and are [1.9] to beat a -1.5-goal handicap this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back Real Madrid/Real Madrid @ [1.81]

Barcelona v Real Betis
Sunday 20:30 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Barcelona [1.08] Betis [46.0] draw [16.0]

The reason Barcelona are now five points behind Real Madrid in the title race is their away record (W3-D4-L1). Happily for them, this weekend they're playing at the Camp Nou, where they have scored 39 unanswered goals this season. Even better, they're playing a Real Betis team that has lost 6/7 on the road.

Go back to last season and Pep Guardiola's men have kept a league-record 12 consecutive clean sheets at home. The last visitor to hit the back of the net was Almeria's Corona, who did so in April last year. Barcelona to Win to Nil should be available at [1.50] by kick-off.

Barcelona will be close to full strength - Seydou Keita has gone to Africa to play for Mali, while David Villa and Ibrahim Afellay remain on the long-term injury list, but everyone else should be available - and (thanks, Opta) Betis have lost on eight of their last ten trips to the Camp Nou, so it is hard to imagine anything other than a routine home win.

Recommended Bet: Back Barcelona Win to Nil @ [1.50]

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

Comments (1)

1. Kufre jonah | 21 January 2012

   Bacelona is the best team ever in the world so no team can beat bacelona