La Liga Top Goalscorer Betting: Valencia's Villa is the value

Spanish Football / Matthew Walton / 14 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

David Villa's goal tally for the last four seasons read: 27,18,16 and 25

"These top sides may score more goals, collectively, but they also share them around more evenly whilst the likes of David Villa at Valencia is the focal point of everything his side does in the final third of the pitch."

Whereas the race for the title is normally a two-horse affair, the topgoalscorer competition in Spain is, as ever, a much more open competition. The value may well be with Valencia and Spain star David Villa...

Whilst the top club honours in Spain have become an annual two-horse-race between Real Madrid and Barcelona, one particular trophy in the land of La Liga regularly produces a much more open contest.

Named in honour of the legendary Athletico Bilbao striker (Rafael Moreno Aranzadi) the title of El Pichichi is bestowed each season upon Spain's leading goalscorer and although, as you'd expect, numerous winners have come from the country's top two sides, recent winners have also come from Atletico Madrid, Deportivo La Coruna and even Real Mallorca.

Once again this year it's a shootout (quite literally!) amongst the likes of Lionel Messi and David Villa (12 goals apiece), Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Gonzalo Higuain (11 each) plus Roberto Soldado (10) with a whole host of players on 6, 7 and 8 goals respectively. And with La Liga still short of its halfway point - 17 games played, 21 to go - there promises to be plenty of fluctuation in this market as the campaign enters its latter stages.

Messi ([4.1]) heads the market with Ibrahimovic ([4.4]) a close second, which is no great surprise as they both represent the league leaders, and joint top scorers, Barcelona. Villa at [4.6] completes the top trio before a drop to Higuain ([7.6]) although it is worth noting the Real Madrid striker is currently out for three weeks with a hamstring strain. Ronaldo ([8.6]), Luis Fabiano ([17.5]) and a previous course and distance winner Diego Forlan ([21.0]) fill the remaining places in the top half dozen of the market.

In previous seasons we've seen winning marks as low as 21 (by the 'other' Ronaldo 2004/05) and as high as 32 by the prolific Forlan for Atletico Madrid last year - an achievement still the source of much amazement amongst fans of Manchester United.

A study which could prove enlightening concerns the number of games played by the various challengers for the title. Messi's 12 goals have come in just 14 starts (a rate of 0.86 per game) which puts him ahead of Villa whose 12 in 16 (0.75) is also behind that of Ibrahimovic, the Swede finding the net 11 times in 14 games (0.78). Should those ratios be maintained, the likely winning total will be somewhere around the 30 goal mark. Forlan, incidentally, ranked at 0.96 last season!

Possibly where other players with 'lesser' sides have benefited in recent years is by virtue of them being the lone striker or 'go to' player for their team in terms of free-kicks and penalties. In the case of Barcelona and Real Madrid one can only imagine the behind the scenes horse-trading which goes on before every deadball situation! These top sides may score more goals, collectively, but they also share them around more evenly whilst the likes of David Villa at Valencia is the focal point of everything his side does in the final third of the pitch.

Given this fact Villa, a player who can be relied upon and with 27/18/16/25 goals in the previous four seasons, must have a fair chance of lasting the pace. Being the lone striker at his club could well put him ahead of the market leaders. Odds of [4.6] for a proven finisher have to be seriously considered. He's also very unlikely to be sold unlike, say, Sergio Arguero at Atletico Madrid.

Of the rest a value option, certainly a back to lay option, could be seen with Cristiano Ronaldo. Despite a stop-start beginning to his career with Los Galacticos he has found the net 7 times from 10 starts. An explosive player, a free-kick and penalty taker and a forward capable of making more of a mark as the season progresses - a rate of 0.70 is good for a player new to the league. Being only 5 goals behind the leaders, all it takes is a couple of goals in a match and Ronaldo's reputation will do the rest. The [8.6] could become very short, very quickly. And, by the same token, Luis Fabiano [17.5] of Seville has definite trading appeal.

A fascinating market and one with real profit potential on Betfair.