La Liga Preview: No mas, no mas

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 28 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

'No mas, no mas,' cry long-serving Real Madrid players like Guti when told they must go to the Riazor.

Recommended Bets: Lay Real Madrid at [2.02] to beat Deportivo La Coruna; back 0-0 Half-Time Score at [2.6] in Deportivo La Coruna v Real Madrid; back 0-0 Half-Time Score at [2.5] in Espanyol v Athletic Bilbao; back Valencia at [3.25] to beat Sevilla

Real Madrid would really like not to have to go to Deportivo La Coruna this weekend, reveals Tobias Gourlay.

It's the halfway point of the season and this column has a resolution it thinks will help it through the next 19 rounds of La Liga: do not bet on the outcome of Atletico Madrid matches. Every dawn is false and it is only their inconstancy that is true.

Dumped out of the Copa del Rey a while ago, Atletico's city rivals have spent the week preparing to visit Deportivo La Coruna. In each of the last 17 (seventeen) Liga seasons, Real Madrid have returned from the Riazor without three points. They've lost in all of the last six seasons and have scored only twice in the last eight.

Real have recently allowed Barcelona out to a five-point lead at the top of the table and go to Galicia with some modest away form - they are W2-D2-L3 since the beginning of October. When they've won, they've had to score three. From the other five matches, their return is one goal, which came months ago at Sevilla.

Deportivo have conceded more than once in only one of their last eight home games. On that occasion, they were beaten by Messi and Ibrahimovic. That is their only defeat in those eight matches.

Who can be Real's Messi and Ibrahimovic? It's difficult to say. Cristiano Ronaldo needs a successful appeal against last week's red card to be eligible to play, but anyway seems nervous about failing to justify his transfer fee and is over-keen that he stars in every attacking move. Neither will the team be helped by the absence of Gonzalo Higuain, who has 14 goals in 17 starts this season, but is injured. Karim Benzema has not settled into any of coach Manuel Pellegrini's systems and Kaka is out of form to the extent that stories about a return to Milan are appearing.

Deportivo lost a good full-back, Filipe, to a broken ankle last weekend, but the value is still on their side. Real can be laid at [2.02]. And think too about another goalless first-half at the Riazor. Depor have had three in a row at home and Real have had four in their last six road games. A price of at least [2.6] should be available by kick-off. Depor's matches with Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Valencia this season were all level at the break, but two of them were 1-1, so you might prefer the Half-Time Draw at [2.18].

This column picked Depor's home match to be goalless last weekend, when they were playing Athletic Bilbao. On Saturday Athletic are in Barcelona to play Espanyol. Their record of not having conceded a first-half goal away from home all season is intact and neither have they scored in the first 45 minutes of any of their most recent four on the road. Meanwhile, Espanyol have seven half-time draws from their last eight games at their Estadi Cornella-El Prat, five of which have been goalless. You can guess the rest.

Sunday night's big game is Sevilla versus Valencia. Last Saturday, Sevilla beat Almeria 1-0 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. It was their first home win in more than two months and ended a run of four consecutive defeats (home and away). On a rain-drenched pitch it owed a lot to an individual misjudgment by Almeria's Acasiete.

Valencia have overtaken them in the league and have been just a point worse than Barcelona on the road this season (W7-D2-L1). Sevilla might be better for the returns of Luis Fabiano, Fredi Kanoute and Didier Zokora, but the effects of recent injuries and unsuccessful African Cup of Nations campaigns are not yet known.

Meanwhile, Valencia will have all of their most important players fit and raring to go. David Villa spoke recently of how much easier it has been for Unai Emery and his squad to attend to on-field matters now that the club's financial predicament has eased a little. A place in next season's Champions League would help some more and on current form Valencia are worth a small bet at [3.25] to extend their lead over their biggest rivals for third place to nine points.