La Liga Preview: New year, new Atletico Madrid?

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 21 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Atletico Madrid's talented individuals are beginning to perform in unison.

Recommended Bets: Back Barcelona Clean Sheet at [2.1] v Real Valladolid; back Atletico Madrid at [2.9] to beat Getafe; back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.0] in Atletico Madrid v Getafe; back 0-0 Half Time Score at [2.5] in Deportivo La Coruna v Athletic Bilbao

Tobias Gourlay has set aside his misgivings and is giving Atletico Madrid one more chance to come good.

Real Madrid's defeat to Athletic Bilbao last weekend means Barcelona are the Winter Champions with a game to spare. Pep Guardiola's side are unbeaten to this point and unlikely to lose that record to Real Valladolid on Saturday. But, if that's the game you're keen to bet on, it might be closer than you're imagining.

Since Valladolid returned to the top-flight, all four of their home games against the Big Two have finished with Under 2.5 Goals ([2.64]) and three of them were level at half-time ([2.84]), just like five of Barca's last six away games. But Los Pucelanos have not been in good form recently - their only goal this year came last week from a lucky deflection off a Racing Santander defender - so, unless Guardiola gives more opportunities to any of the cumbersome trio of Marquez, Milito and Chygrynskiy, the Barcelona Clean Sheet ([2.1]) is the selection here.

There is one other '0' in La Liga's W-D-L columns. It belongs to Getafe, who have drawn none of their first 18 league games. So you can lay the draw (around [3.5]) for their home match with Atletico Madrid on Sunday.

Or can you? It's a derby, so does that mean it's actually a lottery? Or a crap-shoot? And what about the law of averages? Immutable to football fans, ridiculous to statisticians, this says that if something hasn't happened for a while, it's more than usually likely to happen soon - just to balance things out, like.

Both ideas should be ignored, of course, but there are more interesting bets than laying the draw to be made on this match. In the Copa del Rey a couple of weeks ago, Atletico Madrid lost 3-0 at second-tier Recreativo de Huelva. The team had already failed to hit Quique Sanchez Flores's Christmas target (seventh place in the league) and the coach blew up in public. He derided the players for a lack of professionalism that was letting him down. They have come back with three wins, 12 goals and a place in the next round of the cup (they play Celta Vigo on Thursday evening).

They've not been higher than their current 11th place this season, but now look ready to challenge for the European places. Remember, though, the Atletico asterisk - this is their last chance to prove this column right. It wouldn't have them as outsiders ([2.9] to win) this weekend because El Geta are too reliant on the occasional goal-bursts of Roberto Soldado, and, although they have a strong home record, their wins (Valencia excepted, and that was back in September) have come against poor teams. They also place more emphasis than most on Spain's cup competition and might be more tired than usual after a midweek trip to Mallorca.

It's also worth noting that six of Atletico's nine away games this season have gone Over 2.5 Goals, which is available at evens, at the time of writing. Alvaro Dominguez has been given his first professional contract, but, other than him, Quique has the same set of defenders he inherited from Abel Resino. They've managed a couple of clean sheets, but only against Xerez, the team with the worst scoring record in Europe, and Valladolid, whose poor form we noted earlier. Getafe's coach, Michel, was a free-scoring wide midfielder for Real Madrid and Spain who gives his players a similar licence to roam forward. This game is on television on Sunday evening and should be worth watching.

Happily, Deportivo La Coruna versus Athletic Bilbao is not being screened. Deportivo have a taste for the 1-0 win (four of them already at the Riazor this season, [7.4] for another one on Saturday afternoon) and six of Athletic's nine away games have finished with Under 2.5 Goals ([1.77]). Away from their intimidating home fans, Joaquin Caparros's Athletic are cautious, at least to begin with - all of the 10 away goals they've conceded this season have come after half-time. Deportivo have seven first-half clean sheets of their own. The half-time draw looms at [2.02], and, in particular, a goalless one at [2.5].