La Liga Preview: Barcelona should be Pepped up this weekend

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 05 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Harry Redknapp, meet César Sánchez. He's a goalkeeper in very good form.

Recommended Bets: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [2.16] in Barcelona v Mallorca; say Yes to Valladolid Clean Sheet at [2.36] v Xerez

Tobias Gourlay fancies Barcelona this weekend, but is also keen to cash in on the more dismal efforts of Xerez.

Real Madrid won a derby last weekend at home to Getafe, and took a point away from the San Siro on Tuesday evening, but Manuel Pellegrini's position as coach is no more comfortable than it was in the immediate aftermath of Real's embarrassing Copa Del Rey defeat to Alcorcón 10 days ago. Second in Group C of the Champions League is not good enough, and neither is second in La Liga.

On Saturday, Pellegrini takes his men across town to the Vicente Calderón. Real have an excellent record there - since city rivals Atlético returned to the top-flight earlier this decade, Los Merengues have won six and drawn one in the league - which increases the pressure on Pellegrini and his [2.04] favourites.

Atlético are desperate, though, so much so they have replaced Abel Resino as coach with Quique Sánchez Flores, who lost his first match at Athletic Bilbao but has set the team the goal of being seventh or better by the Christmas break. The defence has not been improved since last season (in fact, it's currently the worst in the league) and the attack doesn't seem to care much. Perhaps Flores will change this; it's a little early to be sure, but the defensive unit came much closer to competence than it had in Resino's final days. Sergio Agüero had his best game of the season to this point in Tuesday's draw with Chelsea, but he was probably just trying to sell himself to the West Londoners.

It's tempting to back Real, but consider the following: Cristiano Ronaldo played the first seven competitive games of the season, scoring nine goals, and Real won all of them; since he hurt his ankle the club has won 2/7. The Portuguese hasn't started training properly again and won't be around this weekend.

Top-of-the-table Barcelona have more points than they did at this stage last season, but have dropped a level, if not a league place, in recent weeks. Records suggest they will still be too strong at the Camp Nou for Real Mallorca. Pep Guardiola has won 18/23 at home in the league. He has been ahead at half-time in 15 of those wins (a [1.6] shot this time), and won 16 of them by at least two goals and 11 by three or more (Barcelona -2.0 are [1.98] on the Asian handicap).

In the last five seasons, Mallorca are W2-D0-L8 on the road to the Big Two, losing six by at least two goals, but being behind after 45 minutes in only three. The Asian handicap bet looks stronger, then, but perhaps it's the goal markets that throw up the best punt of all. All of Mallorca's last five away games at the Big Two have produced Over 3.5 Goals, just like 14/23 of Pep's home matches. Over 3.5 Goals is on offer at [2.16] this weekend. Mallorca have scored in all of those last five games, and you can currently say No to the Barcelona Clean Sheet at evens.

This column reacquainted itself with success last week when Sevilla kept a clean sheet at Xerez. Real Valladolid are similarly priced to Sevilla ([2.36]) to do likewise at home to Cuco Ziganda's team on Sunday. In their first ever season in the top-flight, the visitors have now scored in 2/9 league matches, and 0/4 away from home. Valladolid blanked Deportivo La Coruña last time out at the José Zorilla. That was their first clean sheet of 2009/10, but last season they shut out 8/19 visitors.

Finally, a few words for César Sánchez, the former Tottenham goalie whose name Harry Redknapp didn't know last season. Kept out of the Spurs team by an octopus named Gomes, César - a giant squid of a keeper perhaps - left on a free transfer for Valencia in January. He came into the team four games ago and hasn't conceded a goal yet, even keeping out Barcelona a couple of weeks back. Although Real Zaragoza have found the back of the net in all four of their away games so far, the [2.68] price on a fifth clean sheet this weekend has some appeal.