La Liga Preview: Barcelona out for revenge

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 14 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Sevilla hurt Pep Guardiola in midweek. They'll probably regret that this weekend.

Recommended Bets: Back Barcelona / Barcelona at [2.02] v Sevilla; back Mallorca at [2.16] to beat Deportivo La Coruna; back Under 1.5 Goals at [2.96] in Osasuna v Espanyol

Tobias Gourlay expects Barcelona to punish Sevilla for dumping them out of the cup on Wednesday night.

Barcelona showed off six trophies at the Camp Nou a couple of weeks ago. They blew their perfect home record immediately afterwards, drawing 1-1 with Villarreal. On Wednesday they made sure they wouldn't fall victim to hubris again, going out of the Copa del Rey to Sevilla.

There can only be five trophies on show next season, then, and Pep Guardiola is hurting, even if he won't be around to see them (he's still to extend a contract that runs out at the end of this season). The opportunity to relieve the pain is immediate - Sevilla are coming to the Camp Nou this weekend.

Barca's second XI lost the first leg of the cup tie 2-1 at home. Their first XI won the second leg 1-0. It will be the first XI that contests this league match against a team that arrives on a losing streak of three. The importance of Fredi Kanoute to Sevilla has been documented, but Manolo Jimenez has lost another player to the Africa Cup of Nations, Didier Zokora. Without him, the midfield disintegrated against Racing Santander last week. In total, Jimenez has lost 1/5 away from home when Zokora has started and 2/3 when he hasn't. The absence of right-back Sergio Sanchez, who has a heart condition that will not allow him to play for the time being, is also considerable.

Sevilla have lost this fixture in each of the last five seasons and they are set up to lose again this time. The [1.37] on Barcelona to win is hardly worth switching the computer on for, but perhaps Barcelona/Barcelona in the Half Time/Full Time market is. Six of their seven home wins this season have paid this bet out - only Real Madrid have held out until half-time before succumbing - as have 17/21 since Guardiola took charge at the start of last season. The available price is [2.02].

One of the two teams who are still perfect at home is Real Mallorca (the other are Real Madrid). Mallorca have won 8/8, most recently beating Athletic Bilbao, who arrived on the island after three consecutive away wins. This weekend's visitors are Deportivo La Coruna, who come with a good-looking W4-D2-L2 away record. However, since losing the first of those games to Real Madrid, they have played seven teams who have been in the bottom half of the league. The seven hosts went into those games with a combined home record of W10-D5-L13.

Food for thought when the Half-Time Score market matures: 1-0 to the home team or 0-0 has been the half-time score in all eight games at Son Moix and in five of Depor's eight on the road.

It's hard to explain Mallorca's home record - the stadium's usually only half full and the team lost most of its best players last summer - but credit must presumably go to the coach, Gregorio Manzano. Perhaps the record is best respected, rather than analysed. The islanders are [2.16] to win again on Sunday.

Deportivo did well for this column last week, keeping their home game with Osasuna to a single goal. There's a similar bet to be made on our final game this week, which is a home game for Osasuna. Six of eight at the Reyno de Navarra have finished with Under 2.5 Goals, just like six of visiting Espanyol's eight away games so far. Under 2.5 Goals is on offer at [1.69].

But those six Espanyol games also went Under 1.5 Goals, which has a lot to do with Los Periquitos' record of having been shut out in 7/8 and all of the most recent six. Osasuna have three clean sheets in their last six home games, and blanked Real Madrid last time out. And they've scored more than once in only one of their eight home games. You can bet on an Osasuna clean sheet at [2.68] and Under 1.5 Goals at [2.96].