La Liga Preview: Are Sevilla the real deal?

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 15 October 2009 / Leave a comment

The Yellow Submarine is ready to begin its ascent of the table.

Tobias Gourlay wonders whether two has become three in the race for the Spanish title and fancies that Villarreal are ready to improve.

Recommended Bets: Back Sevilla at [2.10] to beat Deportivo; back Villarreal at [2.02] to beat Xerez

Two weeks ago, Sevilla served notice that they might - might - raise a serious challenge for this season's Spanish championship with a 2-1 win over Real Madrid. We will have a clearer idea of whether or not Manolo Jiménez's team deserve to be mentioned as one third of a new triumvirate by the close of play on Saturday. By that point, Sevilla will have played away to Deportivo, Real will have played at home to Valladolid and Barcelona will have been to Valencia.

Sevilla are [2.1] favourites to beat their fourth-placed hosts. The boss's good record on the road to top-10 clubs - he's won 12/18 - suggests that price is too long, as does the team's impressive run of five consecutive league wins. But Deportivo's guv'nor, Miguel Ángel Lotina, has a robust W5-D2-L4 at home to top-six sides.

Lotina's squad doesn't contain a regular goalscorer, so games at the Riazor are often low-scoring affairs (nine of the last 12 have finished with Under 2.5 Goals). And five of Sevilla's last six away from home have ended with two goals or fewer, so perhaps Under 2.5 Goals is a better bet at [1.96].

This column isn't convinced. Anyone who saw Sevilla beat Real now knows how they play: at a relentless high-tempo with wingers that keep on coming. Jiménez was berated throughout last season for not playing the attacking football of his predecessor, Juande Ramos. He has responded this season, and the team no longer settles for narrow victories. Last term, none of their 10 away wins were by more than two goals and half came by a single goal. Most recently in this campaign they beat Athletic Bilbao 4-0, and they might easily have scored another four against Real, were it not for Iker Casillas. Maybe that [2.1] for the away win is the best bet after all.

Over 2.5 Goals is the obvious recommendation for Barça's game with Valencia. It's at the Mestalla after all, where 17/22 matches have produced at least three goals since Unai Emery took charge of Los Che. Indeed, 13/22 have gone Over 3.5 Goals ([2.36]). But the market is now taking notice. Over 2.5 Goals is a [1.56] shot on Saturday, and, with David Villa unlikely to play for the home side, that price is nothing to get excited about.

Real have scored 11 times in three games for Manuel Pellegrini at the Santiago Bernabéu. Since returning to the top-flight a couple of seasons ago Valladolid have gushed 19 goals in four matches at the Big Two, and scored only once. Over 3.5 Goals, which has been a recommendation for some of Real's recent games, looks like it's going to settle down around evens for this one, so Real -2.0&-2.5 on the Asian Handicap might be preferable at [2.12]. The absence of Cristiano Ronaldo, who is likely to be unavailable for the next three or four weeks, is a concern.

Since Pellegrini left for the capital in the summer Villarreal have struggled. In fact, last season's fifth-placed finishers haven't won yet for Ernesto Valverde. The consensus of opinion is that Valverde, who spent last season winning the Greek title with Olympiacos, has been unlucky. That might be the case, and it might also be that he is transforming the team from Pellegrini's neat passing side into one of his own. He has started slowly in previous jobs, then come good, and he should get a chance to prove himself again at a club that is unusually long on patience.

Robert Pires has suggested he focus on taking nine points from the next three matches, all of which look relatively easy. First up are Xerez, the first-timers in La Liga who scored their first goal of the season only a fortnight ago. Xerez have no money, not much more ambition, and will have to make do with the novelty of 12 months in the Primera División. This column will be taking a good opportunity to double its money with Villarreal at [2.02] for the win.

Tags: Barcelona, Deportivo La Coruna, Ernesto Valverde, Football Betting, Iker Casillas, Manolo Jimenez, Miguel Angel Lotina, Real Madrid, Robert Pires, Sevilla, Spanish Football, Spanish Football Betting, Tobias Gourlay, Valencia, Valladolid, Villarreal, Xerez