La Liga Preview: A tenner if Tenerife win

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 17 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

Atletico Madrid have buckled under pressure this season.

Recommended Bets: Back Real Madrid/Real Madrid at [1.72] v Real Zaragoza; Say ‘No’ to Real Madrid Clean Sheet at [1.9]; back Tenerife at [3.25] to beat Atletico Madrid

Tobias Gourlay homes in on Madrid, where the contrasting fortunes of Real and Atletico provide the best of the weekend's punting opportunities in Spain.

The final round of La Liga before the teams take a break for Christmas began a couple of weeks ago, when Barcelona beat Xerez 2-0. The champions are now in Abu Dhabi for the Club World Cup, while the rest, who need to catch up with them in so many ways, play their games this weekend.

On Saturday, Real Madrid have a chance against Real Zaragoza to reduce Barca's lead at the top of the table to two points. Real have been perfect at the Bernabeu so far this season. Zaragoza have two points from seven away games - only Tenerife have been worse, and they have to travel to a new time-zone every time they leave their island. Coach Marcelino was sacked on Saturday night, so B-team boss Jose Aurelio Gay will be in charge while the board searches for a new manager for the seventh time in 18 months.

Doesn't sound promising - the home win is the only plausible result - but there are a couple of good betting opportunities. Real have been ahead at the break in five of their seven home wins under Manuel Pellegrini, while Zaragoza have been behind by half-time in all five of their away defeats. Real Madrid/Real Madrid in the Half Time/Full Time market is a [1.72] shot.

By full-time, Zaragoza have managed to score themselves in all seven games. Real, meanwhile, have managed clean sheets in 4/7, but this time they will be without Pepe, who is out for six months after tearing ligaments last time out, and perhaps the Portuguese's usual central-defensive partner, Raul Albiol, who pulled up in training this week. Over 2.5 Goals is awfully short at [1.46], so perhaps a 'No' to the Real Madrid Clean Sheet is the thing to do. Because the team keeps winning, less has been made of a recent series of mistakes by Iker Casillas, and, by kick-off, the price on him to let at least one in should have come out to [1.9] or so. If the starting centre-backs are as cumbersome as Christoph Metzelder and Ezequiel Garay, this column will be very tempted. For an odds-against punt, Over 3.5 Goals is an obvious selection at [2.14].

When they're not time-travelling, Tenerife can be found at their Heliodoro Rodriguez Lopez home, where they have so far won four times and lost only to third-placed Sevilla and sixth-placed Deportivo La Coruna. They are [3.25] outsiders to beat Atletico Madrid there on Sunday, and that doesn't seem quite right.

This column was hit when Quique Sanchez Flores's much-vaunted new formation failed at home to Villarreal last weekend, and the coach himself seemed flustered too, suggesting afterwards that, 'The worst is yet to come'. Let's hope it comes early Sunday evening, because the home win's the recommendation here.

With Tenerife at such a long price, there are decent alternatives too for more cautious punters. By kick-off they will obviously be available at a comfortable odds-against price off scratch on the Asian Handicap. The most timid (or sensible, perhaps) might want the draw on-side too, in which case Tenerife +0.5 is the bet to look for.

This column's been thinking about introducing something that it might call the 'Atletico Asterisk' for a while now. Ever since Javier Aguirre left and took his remarkable Half Time/Full Time home-winning streak with him, Atletico have not been very punter-friendly. Individually their players are capable of special performances--Kun Aguero and Diego Forlan especially--and sometimes a special individual performance is enough to turn a game against a punter, even where the team is performing to its below-the-sum-of-its-parts standard. Be careful here, then, but the recommendation stands.