La Liga Preview: A sweet trip to Jerez for Valencia

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 07 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Hopefully Xerez will wait until the second half before capitulating to Valencia.

"Recommended Bets: Back Under 2.5 Goals at [1.7] in Deportivo La Coruna v Osasuna; back Villarreal at [1.52] to beat Almeria; back Valencia Clean Sheet at [2.26] v Xerez; back Draw/Valencia Half Time/Full Time Result at [4.6] v Xerez"

Tobias Gourlay finds the week's best money-making opportunities amongst the also-rans of Spanish football.

Let's hope that last week's round of La Liga matches was not indicative of what's to come in the rest of the 2010. 16 goals from 10 matches might be acceptable in France, but not in the new Most Exciting League in the World.

The game most likely to perpetuate this post-Christmas lull is Deportivo La Coruna versus Osasuna. Miguel Angel Lotina has designed Deportivo to win home matches 1-0. They've scored twice in only 2/8 at the Riazor so far this season (against a ropey Atletico Madrid defence and an out-of-form Espanyol one), but this does make them slightly more likely to do so again than their visitors, who have scored twice in only one of eight away games. All of Osasuna's last five on the road have finished with Under 2.5 Goals, and [1.7] is a generous price for this one to go the same way.

Last Saturday Barcelona were fortunate not to concede at least one penalty at home to Villarreal and lucky to finish the match with 11 players and a point from a 1-1 draw. Ernesto Valverde's visitors didn't stop harrying the league leaders and are learning their coach's game now - less stroking the ball around laterally in midfield, more passing it quickly to the forward boys. They have won five in a row at El Madrigal and Saturday's match with Almeria there looks like a home banker.

The away team have a new coach, Juan Manuel Lillo, who won his first game in charge, but a 1-0 result at home to Xerez should not perturb you from taking the [1.52] on offer for Villarreal. For those in search of longer odds, the double-result market is the place to look. Almeria have gone behind before half-time in four of their five away losses this season. They haven't scored a first-half goal in any of their last six. Although the Yellow Submarine has been ahead after 45 minutes in only two of its five straight wins, a return of 15 goals from those matches suggests the Andalusians won't hold out for long. Villarreal/Villarreal is available at [2.3].

On Sunday, Valencia, holders of the best away record in La Liga, travel to Jerez, where Xerez (boy, has that change of first letter made life difficult for the boys at Sky) hold the league's worst home record. It is no surprise that Los Che are excellent on the road; coach Unai Emery uses Ever Banega's rare distribution skills to set his fleet-of-foot and fleet-of-mind forwards free on counter-attacks. And it is no surprise that Xerez are terrible; they have no money and no ambition to stay in the top-flight.

If Xerez continue as they have done in the first 16 rounds of their first-ever Primera Division campaign, they will finish 2009/10 with a record-breakingly low number of goals. They haven't scored in any of their last four at Chapin and in only 2/8 all season. Valencia have taken clean sheets away from 4/6 on the road. The numbers say [2.26] is too long for them to go home spotless again.

There's more to this game too. Eight of Valencia's last 10 matches anywhere and 5/6 away from home have been goalless after 45 minutes, just like 3/6 at Chapin. The draw at half-time is a longer shot ([2.28]) than the visitors ([2.22]), and you'll get better odds on the 0-0 half-time score when that market matures. This trend also raises the idea of the Draw/Valencia double result in the Half Time/Full Time market at [4.6]. Since Emery took over at the beginning of last season, nine of Valencia's 12 away wins have paid out on similar bets.