La Liga Preview: A Real chance to shine

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 19 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Borja Valero is much changed from the player you probably don't remember playing for West Brom last season.

Recommended Bets: Back Mallorca at [1.81] to beat Almeria; back Espanyol at [2.22] to beat Getafe

Tobias Gourlay takes a look at some of La Liga's smaller clubs and finds a couple of home records to be proud of.

This column had come into some good form before the international break - shame it had to be interrupted by a friendly for the national team. It might be prudent to reduce stakes for the first round of matches back.

That said, there is an interesting opportunity in the Balearics first up. Real Mallorca have a home record to match the Big Two's this season, winning all five of their league games at Son Moix. The victories have all come against teams who are now in the bottom half of the table and expected to stay there, but that's where this weekend's visitors, Almeria, are too.

Gregorio Manzano's henchman in last season's late surge to safety was Jurado, but he was only on loan from Atletico and has returned to the capital. In his place - wait for it, West Bromwich Albion fans - is Borja Valero. The midfielder was the Black Country club's record signing from Mallorca just over a year ago, but was a minor player in their attempt to avoid relegation. On transfer-deadline day this year he rejoined his old Spanish club on loan. Like an inverted Samson, his hair's gone and his game has improved. For a couple of reasons, then, you might not recognise him at 1:10 here.

Going back to March, Hugo Sanchez's Almeria have scored in only four of 11 away games, but goals in three of the most recent five suggest they are learning how to play without Alvaro Negredo. Mallorca have conceded only once during their five wins, and their Clean Sheet is worth considering at [2.68], but the very best bet might be in the results markets, where Mallorca are [1.81] favourites to win. The islanders' have been ahead at half-time in each of their last four home wins, while Sanchez's men have been behind at the break in eight of 11 away defeats, including all of the last five. Mallorca/Mallorca is on offer at [2.9] in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Real Madrid are the other team defending a perfect home record this weekend (Barcelona's can't be broken until El Clasico next weekend). Since the embarrassing Copa del Rey defeat to Alcorcon, Manuel Pellegrini has felt able to drop Raul and Guti. The club legend - you know which one that is - had not started three consecutive games on the bench since his debut season in the early Nineties, but, with him out of the way, Kaka is free to play in his best position behind a nippy striker and the team looks much better able to cope without Cristiano Ronaldo.

On Saturday Los Merengues entertain Racing Santander, who arrive with a poor away record - they have lost 8/10 on the road to the Big Two, six of them by two goals or more - and without a full-time manager. Nikola Zigic, the 6'8" striker who scored 13 times in his second successful spell at the club last season, prefers to warm Valencia's bench again this time around, and Racing are much poorer for his absence. At the time of writing, Real -1.5&-2.0 are [1.92] on the Asian Handicap. By Friday, something even closer to evens might be available, and it will probably be very tempting.

The final game to look at this week is Espanyol versus Getafe. Mauricio Pochettino's hosts are difficult to beat at home - Real Madrid are the only one of their last 12 visitors to take three points away with them - and look too long at [2.22] to win on Sunday afternoon. Michel's Getafe have been wildly erratic this season, drawing none of their first 10 league games. They began the campaign with a 4-1 win in Santander, but have subsequently lost four in a row on their travels. If you can rule out the draw for their 11th game of the season, then the value certainly lies with Espanyol.