La Liga Preview: They're not SuperDepor, but they're alright

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 22 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

If football is like chess, Miguel Ángel Lotina is the Garry Kasparov of the five-at-the-back opening.

Recommended Bets: Back Real Madrid/Real Madrid at [2.34] v Sporting; back Deportivo -0 on Asian Handicap at [2.02] v Valladolid; back Deportivo Clean Sheet at [3.8] v Valladolid

Tobias Gourlay is checkmated by some of this weekend's Spanish fixtures, but reckons Deportivo La Coruña's robust defence will serve them well.

Pep Guardiola's Barcelona is not Whiteside, McGrath and Robson's Manchester United, so should be capable of the sober reflection demanded by seven days that have brought a goalless draw (Guardiola's first) in Valencia and a home defeat to Rubin Kazan. Before the champions get a chance to show what they have learnt against Real Zaragoza on Sunday, their closest rivals get a chance to show how much better they feel for Barça's loss of a perfect league record.

First up, Real Madrid travel to El Molinón, the ground where, last season, intimidating home supporters helped a less-than-intimidating Sporting Gijón team to avoid relegation. The Asturians have started the new campaign well, but memories of their matches with the Big Two in 2008/09 have not faded entirely. On their own ground, they lost 4-0 to Real and 6-1 to Barça. The aggregate score from the two away games was the same, and they have already lost 3-0 at the Camp Nou this season.

The supporters are too proud to allow Manuel Preciado to arrange his team any more defensively than usual, leaving this column to fear for them this weekend, even in Cristiano Ronaldo's absence, and think about either Real Madrid/Real Madrid at [2.34] in the Half Time/Full Time market (Sporting have conceded at least twice in the first 45 minutes of all five of their previous games with the Big Two) or Real -1.5 at [2.20] on the Asian Handicap (23 goals conceded in total in those five matches).

As Real's match finishes, so, a few minutes later, Sevilla's game with Espanyol will kick-off. Manolo Jiménez's men had their five-match winning streak ended by Deportivo La Coruña last week, but the coach believes that morale has been restored by the midweek Champions League win in Germany, and, moreover, that the team is 'a little bit bigger for having suffered'.

Sevilla have won eight of their last 10 matches at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, but since Mauricio Pochettino took charge of Espanyol in January this year, the Parakeets have been a resilient bunch. They lost only four of 12 away games, and none by more than the odd goal. This column is not entirely comfortable on either side of the -1.0 Asian Handicap line.

It will stay away from the Barça game too. The season started in August with the Super Cup for Guardiola's men, and they might now be a little tired. Lionel Messi just started an eighth consecutive game, something he had not done before, and hardly looked like the next Ballon d'Or winner. These short-term concerns undermine longer-term trends showing that promoted teams like Zaragoza have produced Over 3.5 Goals on 11/14 recent trips to the Big Two ([1.97]) and that Barça have won 6/9 versus promoted teams by three goals or more (-2.5 on the Asian Handicap, they are [2.2]).

There are some more interesting prospects ahead of fourth-placed Deportivo's trip to Real Valladolid on Sunday afternoon. Valladolid are slight favourites to win ([2.74]), despite not having taken three points from any of their last eight home games. The visitors, who take a defensive approach that bears no resemblance to the bravura performances of Javier Irureta and Rivaldo's SuperDepor but has yielded clean sheets and victories in each of their last two away matches, are much more appealing at [2.92].

Because Valladolid have managed draws in four of those eight winless games, Deportivo -0 on the Asian Handicap might be preferable at [2.02]. Those who prefer longer prices could think about the Deportivo Clean Sheet at [3.8], even though Valladolid have not yet been shut-out in the José Zorilla this season. Deportivo's five-man defence has contributed to coach Miguel Ángel Lotina's record of being level at half-time in 24/41 away matches. The Half Time Draw is the final noteworthy option at [2.14].