La Liga Preview: See the stars? Ignore them

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 11 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Next season's Champion League: Jesus Navas knows where Sevilla are headed.

Recommended Bets: Back Barcelona/Barcelona at [2.16] v Valencia; back Real Zaragoza +0&+0.5 at [2.0] v Racing Santander; back Sevilla at [1.72] to beat Deportivo La Coruna

Tobias Gourlay suspects that the stars are not a good form guide and looks beyond the Big Two to find the value in this weekend's Spanish-football markets.

A 2-2 draw for Barcelona in Almeria and a 92nd-minute winner for Real Madrid allowed Los Blancos to finally close the gap to the reigning champions. The manner of Real's win - they had been 2-0 down to Sevilla - has prompted some to see their name written on La Liga's trophy in the stars. But wasn't it also written in the stars that they would win the Champions League final on home turf in May?

So perhaps Barca's result in Almeria was the more significant one. Almeria had frustrated Pep Guardiola's team in the Camp Nou earlier in the season, but lost 1-0. At home, they were still prepared to let Barca keep the ball (pretty inevitable anyway) and then work hard to close them down, but were quicker to counterattack and got away with a point.

Might they have shown Unai Emery how to set up his Valencia team in Barcelona this weekend? Hopefully somebody's shown him something - Los Che have lost their last couple of games at the Camp Nou by an aggregate 10-0 - but Almeria's blueprint looks more useful than most because it emphasises the counterattack, which Valencia used to terrific effect in winning six of their first seven away matches of the season.

Injuries and individual losses of form have restricted them to a single win in their last six, however, and their usual central midfielders are not best suited - temperamentally or physically - to the anti-football that made Almeria's plan work like Chelsea's did in Spain last season. Although Barca might play with one eye on next week's Champions League fixture with Stuttgart, this column isn't quite prepared to oppose them at home. Yet.

If Emery ignores what Almeria did, the numbers suggest they will be beaten quickly. Barcelona have been ahead by half-time in 8/11 home wins this season, while Valencia have been losing after 45 and 90 minutes in each of their last five trips to top-six clubs. Barcelona/Barcelona is available at [2.16] in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Real, who are now [1.98] slight favourites to win La Liga, have a gentle reintroduction to domestic matters at third-bottom Real Valladolid. Without a behind-the-scenes pass to Real's training ground for the next couple of days, it's hard to assess the impact of Wednesday's Champions League exit. Although one should still expect them to win, the value lies in predicting the manner of the victory. Will Real be encumbered by self-doubt or will Valladolid be punished for the insolence of others? This column's not sure, which means it needs to find something to bet on in the other eight games of round 26.

Well, first, there's Racing Santander versus Real Zaragoza. It's Zaragoza, of course, who have Humberto Suazo, he of the four goals, three assists and two Betfair columns in eight games, only a couple of which have been lost. Not bad for the 17th-placed team and rather better than 16th-placed Racing's recent form. Monday's draw in the Mestalla is creditable, but it was the fourth match in a row in which they had failed to score. Zaragoza +0&+0.5 will be around evens in the Asian Handicap market, and gives a small payout in the event of a draw and a bigger one if Los Blanquillos win.

And in the other half of the table fifth-placed Sevilla are playing at home to sixth-placed Deportivo La Coruna. Deportivo have got where they are on the back of a solid defence and not much else. They haven't scored themselves in any of their last five on the road and will struggle to keep up with Navas and Perotti on Sevilla's wings. [1.72] is a good price for the home win and, because the hosts have scored before half-time in six of their last seven games anywhere and because Deportivo's run of half-time 0-0s is over, [2.74] for the Sevilla/Sevilla double result ain't bad either.