Spanish Football / Matthew Walton / 09 September 2009 / 1 Comments

Matthew Walton asks if Spain's big two are value this weekend and explains how you can find the value on Ronaldo, Messi and Kaka et al...

"Barcelona and Real Madrid may win this weekend but are they really value bets?"

Last year's record-breaking exploits of Barcelona, followed by the outrageous spending of Real Madrid this Summer, has added further confirmation - if any were needed - that these two teams will once again dominate La Liga this season.

Problem is, such a domination comes at a price. Namely, a short price for those of us who want to back these two clubs now the Spanish top flight is now back in session - as last week's first round of matches illustrated.

Barca swept aside Sporting Gijon 3-0 and Madrid defeated Deportivo 3-2 but many traders would have found little room for manoeuvre in a set of match odds which ranged from little more than [1.33] up to barely [1.5].

But this has been the case with home matches at the Nou Camp and Bernabeu for many years and, given the fact that both clubs have now increased their shared control of the domestic scene in Spain, this trend shows no signs of stopping any time soon.

Away from home it's a different story and this weekend Pep Guardiola takes the defending champions to play Getafe whilst Pellegrini's galacticos visit Espanyol. Prices are bigger and if not the better side of evens, they are certainly the better side of [1.5] - well, just about - and backing the 'Big Two' at those kind of prices has a lot of appeal to a lot of punters.

However, even allowing for these two sides being so dominant on their 'home soil' should we still be tempted into backing them at short odds on the road. Popular betting wisdom has taught us that 'backing teams at odds-on away from home is the fast way to the poorhouse' and the question remains as to whether that applies even to these all-conquering clubs.

Studying the last 10 years of action in La Liga the data is quite revealing. In the 190 matches which Barcelona have played away from home their W-D-L record reads 80-52-58 which, in percentage terms, equates to winning just 42% of all their games away from Catalonia.

As for Madrid, their record away from the capital is 89-49-52 which only converts to a slightly more impressive 46% win ratio.

In terms of physical odds, a 42% winning chance converts to a price of [2.38] whilst 46% represents a mark just short of [2.20].

Barcelona currently trade at [1.54] to win at Getafe. Real Madrid are [1.61] to win at Espanyol.

The simple fact of the matter is that both these sides are significantly 'over bet' each week in Spain and whilst backers might be able to cherry-pick those games which offer the better chance of success, a blind laying of all their away matches over the last 10 seasons would have returned a healthy profit.

Even if we were to study their home form over the same period, where Madrid's W-D-L reads 133-30-27 and Barca's stats are 128-39-23, that still should see the market trade at around [1.44] on average for each home match. And, again, the prices are often much shorter than this figure.

You only have to look at the past form of this weekend's fixtures to realise there is something in these findings.

Barcelona's last four trips to Getafe have seen them win only twice (1-0 last season and 2-1 in 2004/05) whilst the two other visits ended in a 2-0 defeat and a 1-1 draw. Real Madrid have won two and lost two of their last four encounters with Espanyol at the Estadi Cornellà-El Prat. That, added to the 10 year trends, would suggest quotes nearer to [2.0] would be more reasonable for these matches.

As the season progresses, and the form becomes easier to read, such markets may well re-align themselves. However, in the early stages of the campaign, when decisions are often influenced by the heart rather than the head, these bets are regularly found.

Of course, Barcelona and Real Madrid may win this weekend but are they really value bets?

As backers we should be wary of matches in which we're being asked to take a bet under the odds and as layers we should be equally knowledgeable of these situations ... and take full advantage.

Tags: Barcelona, football betting, La Liga Odds, Matthew Walton, Real Madrid, Spanish football odds