La Liga Betting: Villareal v Barcelona

Spanish Football / Dan Fitch / 20 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Free-scoring, stylish and top of the league; It's hard to see what more Pep Guardiola could have achieve in his first six months as manager of Barcelona, says Dan Fitch.

If I believed in reincarnation, then right now I would like to come back as a Barcelona fan. I mean, what's not to love? They score with more regularity than Frank Sinatra on tour, their team is full of home grown players rather than expensive imports and they have a cool kit, which only bears a sponsor's name because they've got such big hearts.

As an outsider, peering towards La Liga without the encumbrance of having an emotional investment in any side, it's hard not to go all gooey-eyed when my gaze rests upon beautiful Barca.

2008 has been a year of two halves for Barcelona, which we can label 'The first half in which Frank Rijkaard was coach' and 'The second half in which Pep Guardiola became coach and made everything better again'.

It's hard to see how Guardiola could have made a better fist of things since taking over the reigns as coach. Since losing the first game of the season to Numancia, Barcelona have been unbeaten in La Liga. They currently top the league by eight points and have scored so many goals that the bloke who calculates the La Liga table has had to throw away his abacus and invest in a computer.

Last weekend they overcame Real Madrid, courtesy of late goals from Eto'o and Messi. On Sunday, Barcelona have the chance to get one over another side that started the season with title aspirations, when they visit Villarreal. Having also beaten second placed Valencia, third placed Sevilla and fifth placed Atletico Madrid, victory over Villarreal would represent a clean sweep over their rivals.

So is it all over? Probably. Barca's fellow title chasers' best hope of getting in on the action, is the possibility that Guardiola's side get distracted by their Champions League campaign. Barcelona can be backed at [4.6] to be crowned champions of Europe for the third time and they are just [1.15] to win La Liga.

Villarreal also need to be cautious in regards to becoming distracted by the Champions League. A kind draw paired them with Panathinaikos in the last 16 and they will fancy their chances of making the quarter-finals. Villarreal are available at [29.0] to win their first Champions League title.

Last weekend saw Villarreal lose 1-0 at Sevilla. The home side enjoyed the bulk of the possession in a tepid encounter, which Villarreal were unable to stamp their authority upon. Having gone a goal down to a Renato goal on the brink of half time, Villarreal had Joseba Llorente sent off in the second half, which effectively ended the contest.

Villarreal face Barcelona on the back of some very poor form. They have recorded just 1 win in their last 8 games and have been leaking goals. The last 14 games have brought just 1 clean sheet. In that time they have conceded 29 goals, an average of just over 2 goals per game.

When a side that are struggling to keep a clean sheet meet Barcelona, it normally results in the goalkeeper ending up with a bad back. 10 of Villarreal's last 14 games have broken 2.5 goals, while Barcelona have done the same in 4 of their last 5 matches. Over 2.5 can be backed at [1.74], with over 3.5 at [2.72].

The first goalscorer market will be available on Betfair on Sunday, with Eto'o likely to be available at around [4.5], Messi [6] and Henry [6.5]. For Villarreal, their top scorer Giuseppe Rossi should be available at around [8.0].

Villarreal won the last encounter between the two sides, when they won 2-1 at the Nou Camp last season. Barca have won just once from the last five occasions that they have played against Villarreal and their away record at Estadio El Madrigal is also not up to much, having won just once from their last seven visits to the Castellon side.

Villarreal are [4.6], with the draw at [3.95] and Barcelona [1.87]. Despite their poor record against Villarreal, I expect Barcelona to prevail. Guardiola's Barcelona look a different proposition to the Rijkaard's team of the past couple of seasons.

A 1-0 Barcelona win is available at [9.6], with 2-1 at [9.8] and 3-2 at [26]. A repeat of last week's performance against Real Madrid, in which Barcelona were drawing at half time/winning a at full time, can be backed at [5.5].