La Liga betting: Numancia v Real Madrid

Spanish Football / Dan Fitch / 30 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

A somewhat rejuvenated side under Juande Ramos, Real Madrid travel to Numancia this weekend looking to close the gap on Barcelona. Juande Ramos' side may well win this one but don't expect a thrashing, says Dan "The Betting Man" Fitch.

There was always one kid at school who could do no wrong. If you got 95% in a test, he'd get 98%. If you fancied a girl, then you could bet that she fancied him. You were both in the school football team, but he was the captain.

Of course, he was also a really nice bloke, so you couldn't even bring yourself to hate him properly. You just wanted to be him. This phenomenon was brilliantly evoked in The Kinks' song 'David Watts'. The tune was later covered by The Jam, probably because Paul Weller wouldn't let Bruce Foxton sing any of the songs that he'd written.

The current perfect prefect of Spanish football is beautiful Barcelona. All the other sides want to be like them, but no one feels it with quite such pain and hunger, as Real Madrid.

Barcelona are playing just how Real Madrid sides of yesteryear have done. Swashbuckling panache, combined with ruthless efficiency. Though Madrid have bucked their ideas up in recent weeks in an attempt to match the standards of Barca, their football is still failing to hit that same sweet rhythm.

This weekend Real travel to Numancia, looking for a win that will cut the gap at the top to 9 points. That is until Sunday, when Barcelona will no doubt steamroller Racing Santander and restore their 12 point advantage.

This is the current frustration facing Real. Since Juande Ramos arrived as coach and immediately suffered a 2-0 loss to Barcelona, Madrid have won 5 consecutive league games. The trouble is, Barcelona have also won their 5 games in this time-span and have further increased upon their ever more ludicrous goal difference.

All Real can really do is to keep getting the results and hope that something miraculous happens. If Juande Ramos wants to keep his job beyond this summer, he also needs to get Real playing a more stylish brand of football. Those at the Bernabeu last weekend, were not happy with the laboured manner of Madrid's 1-0 victory over Deportivo.

Raul notched the goal last week and when Betfair's goalscorer markets open nearer to kick off, he will be priced at around [6.5] to score first and [2.5] to score anytime. Gonzalo Higuain will be the favourite at [6.0] and [2.3], with Robben [8.5] and [ 3.2] to notch at anytime. The favourite for Numancia will be either Gorka Brit or Asier Goiria, who will priced around the [11.0] and [4.0] mark, depending on which of the two starts up front.

Numancia are the only side to have beaten Barcelona this season, catching Guardiola's boys off-guard in the opening week of La Liga. Last weekend Numancia faced them again and put in a rugged defensive performance, which saw them go into half time at 0-0, before eventually succumbing 4-1.

Sergio Kresic's team are likely to adopt a similar approach against Real Madrid. So far this season Numancia have proved tricky opposition for the top sides, but have struggled against lesser opposition. They currently hover in seventeenth position, just outside the relegation places.

Cesar Palacios will be suspended for the match and should be replaced by Manuel Pavon in Numancia's five man defence. It's possible that Gorka Brit will regain his fitness and if he does, Goiria will be dropped to the bench. Fernando Gago and Dani Parejo should both be fit to play for real, having shaken off injuries.

Numancia are [6.6], with the draw at [4.1] and Real Madrid the [1.62] favourites. Though Real Madrid are top form, they face a side in Numancia that have won their last 3 home games. Numancia will play with just a single striker and hope to get something on the break. I think that Real will just do enough to scrape a win, but it's unlikely to be easy or pretty.

Real have won their last 4 games against Numancia. 1-0 to Real is [8.6], with 2-0 at [11.0] and 2-1 at [9.6]. Madrid are [2.56] to be winning at half time/full time, with the odds at [4.9] for the draw/Real Madrid.

The match earlier this season between the sides finished 4-3 to Real Madrid, but
I don't see this finishing with a similar bounty of goals. The home side will be trying to keep things tight, while Madrid's defence have improved since Ramos arrived. However, they are still not scoring as many goals as they'd like. Under 2.5 goals is [2.24], with overs at [1.78]. A Real clean sheet will be priced at around [2.4].