La Liga Betting: Goal happy Valencia back with the big boys

Spanish Football / Editor / 14 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"David Villa was known to be devastated that his proposed €38m move to Barcelona fell through at the last minute (Barcelona president Joan Laporta chose to fly to Milan to sign Zlatan on the day he was expected to clinch the Villa deal) though there has been no sign of Villa moping as the transfer window passed and mooted interest from Manchester United, Liverpool and Real Madrid was never followed up."

Ben Lyttleton looks at Valencia, a club that has been in credit crunch-induced hell but appears to be back

After only two games of the season, there is a familiar look to the top of the Spanish table: Barcelona and Real Madrid sit prettily on top, with two wins out of two and goals for their big signings Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Cristiano Ronaldo already in the bag. There are two other teams with 100 per cent records, and while Athletic Bilbao may have been expected to do well against grief-stricken Espanyol and newly-promoted Xerez, the sight of Valencia up there is something of a surprise.

By rights, Valencia should be one of Spain's biggest clubs: between 2000 and 2004, they reached two Champions League finals, won two league titles and the Uefa Cup. But when Juan Soler started his reign of mismanagement in 2004, when famously the club got through five sporting directors, three chief doctors and three director-generals in four years, their debts rose from €125m to over €400m (partly due to the decision to buy land to build a new stadium before selling the Mestalla, just as Spain's property bubble burst). Spending over €30m to pay off former bosses Claudio Ranieri, Quique Sánchez Flores and Ronald Koeman did not help either. It got to the stage last season when the club offered to rent out senior players for appearances at weddings or bar mitzvahs hosted at the club stadium.

For a time last season, their very presence in the top-flight was under threat: firstly after the admission that they could not pay their creditors the €400m that they owed them - leading to a crazy spell of four new presidents and six sporting directors in just six months - and then after a run of results following the non-payment of their players that saw them lose to three of the bottom four clubs and win just one game in nine to leave them, briefly, flirting with relegation.

The team rallied to finish in sixth place, mainly thanks to David Villa's nine goals in their last ten matches, and the fire-sale that was expected this summer never took place. Villa was known to be devastated that his proposed €38m move to Barcelona fell through at the last minute (Barcelona president Joan Laporta chose to fly to Milan to sign Zlatan on the day he was expected to clinch the Villa deal) though there has been no sign of Villa moping as the transfer window passed and mooted interest from Manchester United, Liverpool and Real Madrid was never followed up.

The Spain striker was outstanding at the weekend as Valencia beat Real Valladolid 4-2, scoring two goals, seeing two other shots brilliantly saved and setting up chances which team-mates Juan Mata and Ramos Alba somehow missed. That performance has seen his price in the La Liga top-scorer market fall from ([5.50]) to ([3.50]), a price that seems a little short despite Valencia's obvious goal threat going forward. He is now a ([5.4]) lay in the same market. With David Silva and Mata alongside him in a front-three, Unai Emery's side are always good for goals - and as Spanish expert Tobias Gourlay pointed out on these pages last week, 15 of their 19 home matches ended with over 2.5 goals.

But the eternal question with Valencia is when what happens off the pitch will start to affect matters on it, and whether they will be able to keep hold of Villa, Silva, and Mata beyond the January transfer window. Those issues could determine whether Valencia's ([2.54]) price to finish in the top three is a fair one or not - though what player would want to change clubs six months before a World Cup? More likely, if Villa or Silva were to move on, their buying clubs may strike a deal with Valencia in the new year and allow the players to remain at Valencia until the season's end.

All of which means that details-obsessed coach Emery, who has been described as 'the new Rafa Benitez', should be able to hang on to his key players for another full season. He has even managed to bring out the best in Ever Banega, whose summer move to Everton fell through but who has started the season like a midfielder possessed. Lack of pace in central midfield was last year's weakness, but Banega has solved that.

Emery has admitted that the defence needs to improve - "we want our defence to suffer less but without sacrificing our attacking potential," he said - but if the front players can avoid injury and with no Champions League distraction (though they are in the Europa League, and a decent ([16.5]) to win it), they could challenge the Barcelona-Real Madrid duopoly. Above all, Emery wants Valencia's season to be focused just on football, but unfortunately that's the one thing that is out of his hands.

Recommended bets:
Lay David Villa to finish top scorer @ ([5.4])
Back Valencia to finish in the top three @ ([2.54])
Back Valencia to win the Europa League @ ([16.5])