La Liga Betting: Getafe can get safe

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 28 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

In his final column of the season, Tobias Gourlay smells value in the nether region of the Spanish top-flight. Best Bet: Back Getafe at [2.18] to beat Racing

It is arrived: the final week of the 2008/09 La Liga season. Barcelona are champions, but are not enjoying themselves while the Champions League final with Manchester United is still to be played (as it is at the time of writing). Real Madrid are in purgatory, going down at home to Real Mallorca for a fourth consecutive defeat against the backdrop of presidential elections. Sevilla's future in third is more assured: that's exactly where they will finish and from there they go straight into the Champions League. Fourth is good enough for the qualifying rounds of the Champions League, and Atlético Madrid are the team in possession. They will remain so with a draw or better at home to Almería on Saturday evening. If they lose, Villarreal could overtake them with victory in Mallorca.

That's the top of the table. What of the bottom? Defeats last weekend confirmed the relegations of Recreativo and Numancia. Victories last weekend ensured that Sporting Gijón, Osasuna and Getafe would survive until the last day. All three might now survive indefinitely because those victories have taken them closer to Real Betis and Real Valladolid, who are both still in danger and play each other on Sunday evening.

Going into the match with a one-point advantage means a draw would ensure Valladolid's survival. Betis are unlikely to settle for such a result, however, because the other three are all against teams with very little to play for, and it is not certain that Valladolid, who have drawn three and lost seven of their last 10 matches, are equipped to withstand the sweeping attacks their hosts are capable of when their best players are fit and motivated. That should be the case this weekend, and the home win is the selection at [1.87].

At this unexalted level, Sporting might be considered win specialists. They have had to be so because they have drawn only one league game all season; 39 of their 40 points have come in batches of threes. Los Rojiblancos are [1.41] favourites to win their game against Recreativo, who are, of course, already relegated. That's not an exciting price in itself, so this column would think about taking it as one half of a multiple with Atlético Madrid, who are [1.32] to beat Almería.

The staggering form of Diego Forlán - 11 goals in his last seven league games - has been the catalyst for Atlético's late charge towards the final Champions League place. The Uruguayan overtook Samuel Eto'o in the race for the Pichichi with a hat-trick in Bilbao last weekend, and will expect to confirm a second coronation as top-scorer against a side that has lost seven of the eight away games it has played against teams in the top six this season.

If there's something about either Sporting or Atlético that doesn't appeal - whatever could it be? - then Valencia are a similarly priced alternative at [1.39]. Los Che can still be overtaken by Deportivo in the race for sixth and a place in next season's inaugural Europa League, but should have the beating of an Athletic Bilbao side that gave up caring about anything in the league beyond safety at about the time it qualified for the Copa Del Rey final.

On the back of last week's victory in the Camp Nou, José Antonio Camacho's Osasuna play Real Madrid at home. The Pamplona-based club won't often have started as odds-on favourites to beat Los Merengues. The [1.85] win price is primarily a reflection of the home team's greater need for the three points, but also perhaps recognises the dismal form of the outgoing champions. It seems fair, but perhaps not much more than that.
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The final relegation candidate is Getafe, who head north to Santander to play a Racing side that confirmed its own place in La Liga 2009/10 last week. The positive impact of new coach Míchel on morale within the Madrid club was mentioned here last week along with the importance of Roberto Soldado. Since then, the team has beaten Numancia thanks to a Soldado goal, so both factors are still apparently relevant. [2.18] looks a generous price for the away win.