La Liga Betting: Get with the goals when Valencia are at home

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 29 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Tobias Gourlay talks us through the best bets on offer this week in La Liga, including another win for Barcelona and plenty of goals as Valencia host Almeria.

Valencia were a topic of discussion in this column last week, before they rather decently gave Mallorca three early goals and made sure that Over 2.5 Goals was settled before half-time. A similar bet on their home match with Almería on Sunday ([1.79]) is a firm recommendation, bearing in mind that nine of the 10 league games at the Mestalla so far this season would have paid out. Not to mention the fact that Unai Emery's first-choice goalkeeper, Renan, remains on the injury list. Vicente Guaita started against Mallorca, but was entirely responsible for their first goal and thereafter did not convince as a player with a future at a high level.

Almería's new boss, Hugo Sánchez, is full of dash. Upon taking the job last month, his first move was to declare his interest in managing Real Madrid. 164 goals in 207 games for Los Merengues give him a head start over most in achieving that particular ambition, and he has also begun well at Almería. Certainly, he seems to have impressed Kalu Uche; the Nigerian international forward has scored four times in his last three league games. If "Hugol" can only point Álvaro Negredo in the direction of the opposition net too, he will have a fully functional strike-force.

Seven of Almería's nine road games this season have produced three goals or more, including Hugol's first one, a 2-2 draw with Espanyol. Indeed, the numbers suggest there is value too in Over 3.5 Goals at [2.88]. Check the team-sheets before committing to the longer bet, however. Fernando Morientes has again proved himself an inadequate replacement for David Villa, so make sure that the latter is fit. David Silva, who is of similar attacking importance to Los Che, picked up a very slight knock last week, but should be available.

This weekend, Mallorca travel to Pamplona to play fellow relegation candidates Osasuna. The obvious cliché would be to say that that the islanders will be full of confidence after the win over Valencia, but it is worth considering that they have lost their last seven away games. Moreover, their hosts have recently given a series of good performances against much better teams without getting the points they deserved.

At least, that is what they would tell you. After Los Rojillos lost 3-1 to Real Madrid at the Bernabéu two weeks ago, President Patxi Izco broke off the club's formal ties with the Spanish refereeing corps in protest at being denied two clear penalties and having Juanfran sent off for diving. In effect, this means little more than no free tickets to the Reyno de Navarra for match officials.

To their credit, Osasuna ran Barcelona close the following week and have also managed draws away to Villarreal and Sevilla in January. Since José Antonio Camacho took over as manager in October, Walter Pandiani has bucked up his ideas and goals have started to come more frequently. The team has struck 13 times in its last four home games, winning two of them and failing to hold on to leads in the others. A win price of [2.08] for this weekend's game is worth inspecting, just be aware that Camacho's men are not above a ruinous defensive collapse.

Two other games merit a mention this week. Racing Santander versus Barcelona has been billed as the clash of La Liga's two form teams. No arguments about Barça, but let us break down Racing's seven-game unbeaten run. They have won only three of the seven, all away from El Sardinero; their last three home results have been 1-1 draws with Athletic Bilbao, Málaga and Recreativo. Meanwhile, Barça have won their last eight away games. It is a shame there are not any stronger patterns to Barça's away wins - they have been ahead at half-time in half of them, half of them have been by a single goal - but [1.60] is not an inconsiderable price for them to make it nine in a row.

Finally, a reminder about what tends to happen in Atlético Madrid's home games: this season and last, they have been ahead by half-time in 16 of their 18 wins at the Vicente Calderón, failing to take three points in nine of the 11 games in which they have not held an advantage after 45 minutes.

The Christmas sojourn has affected Atlético badly: going into the break, they were unbeaten in nine league games; coming out of it, they have managed two draws and two defeats. Real Valladolid are a terrible away team, however, losing seven of nine this term. If you think Los Colchoneros have got the beating of them, take them to be ahead at half-time and full-time. If things are not panning out correctly at the break, stakes might be saved by laying the home side to be ahead at full-time.