Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 01 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Tobias Gourlay looks forward to another scintillating round of La Liga.

Recommended Bets: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [2.38] in Sevilla v Real Madrid; back Barcelona Clean Sheet at [1.76] v Almería; back Over 3.5 Goals at [2.42] in Atlético Madrid v Real Zaragoza

There can be little doubt about the game of this weekend in Spain. On Sunday night Real Madrid put their perfect record on the line against Sevilla, midweek destroyers of Rangers and the third-best team in La Liga by some distance at the moment. Real have won their last four matches by a combined score of 13-0; Sevilla have won their last four 12-1. [40.0] would be an unmissable price for them to win the league in most other seasons.

For the first close season since Sevilla's entry into the top six their president, Jose María del Nido, has not cashed in any big players (in the past, José Antonio Reyes, Sergio Ramos, Júlio Baptista and Dani Alves have been sold in peak condition). Upfront, Luís Fabiano and Freddie Kanouté have been joined by a new record signing, Álvaro Negredo. Their supply-line is more dependable for the emergence on the left of the Diegos, Perotti and Capel, and the continued excellence of Jesús Navas.

The latter is a favourite of this column, and might soon achieve the much wider recognition he deserves. Like Reyes before him, he is a Gitano who suffers badly from homesickness, but he has recently said he is determined to rid himself of it in order to play at next year's World Cup. It is no small thing to say he is eminently capable of winning a place in the current Spain squad.

What does all of this mean for Sunday night? Well, neither of these newly reinforced teams has been seriously tested yet, making the outcome difficult to call, so, because five of Real's last seven visits to the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán have finished with four goals or more, Over 3.5 Goals is the value bet at [2.38], if both teams stick to their attacking principles and if Cristiano Ronaldo recovers from the small injury he sustained against Marseille on Wednesday night.

Like Real, Barcelona are perfect so far this season. They have an easier game on Sunday at home to Almería, who have lost on all of their four visits to the Big Two since returning to the top-flight two years ago. It is difficult to find reasons to oppose the [1.12] favourites, but similarly tricky to countenance a bet in favour of them.

For example, Pep Guardiola's champions have been ahead after 45 minutes and 90 minutes of 13/21 at the Camp Nou since the start of last season, which tallies with the visitors' habit of losing quickly to the Big Two (4/4), but the price of Barcelona/Barcelona in the Half Time/Full Time market is only [1.48]. Perhaps the best value bet is the Barcelona Clean Sheet at [1.76]. Almería have failed to score in six of their last eight away matches going back to last season.

Abel Resino's Atlético Madrid have been far from perfect to this point. After failing to either win or keep a clean sheet in any of their five matches, Los Colchoneros are third-bottom on three points. Their defensive malaise has not been cured by the introduction of a new goalkeeper and the removal of John Heitinga to Everton. On Saturday night they play at home to newly promoted Real Zaragoza, who have found the back of the net in all of their games so far. Atlético's last three matches have all gone Over 3.5 Goals, just like 6/11 at the Vicente Calderón since Resino arrived last season. At [2.42], that's the recommendation for this one too.

There's one final game that looks like it might have a few goals in it. It involves, of course, Valencia, who travel to Santander to play a Racing team that has lost its first two home games 4-1. Indeed, since the middle of March, 6/9 at El Sardinero have produced Over 3.5 Goals, which is a [2.8] shot this weekend. Valencia have lately beaten Getafe 4-2 and lost 3-1 to Getafe.

Tags: Almeria, Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Diego Capel, Diego Poretti, Football Betting, Jesus Navas, John Heitinga, Jose Maria Del Nido, Racing Santander, Real Madrid, Real Zaragoza, Sevilla, Spanish Football, Spanish Football Betting, Tobias Gourlay, Valencia