La Liga Preview: Fiesta time in Valencia

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 24 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

David Villa operates on a different plane.

Recommended Bets: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [2.0] in Real Madrid v Tenerife; back Over 3.5 Goals at [2.62] in Valencia v Atlético Madrid; back Espanyol Clean Sheet at [2.3] v Xerez

La Liga action is coming thick and fast. Tobias Gourlay has no time for a siesta.

In American football (gridiron, that is, not soccer), if a team is coming off a short week, one in which they have had less than the usual amount of time to recover from their previous outing, it will be mentioned in any serious match preview. Theirs is a more physically damaging game than ours, and short weeks usually only apply to one of the two teams - it is perceived to be a relative disadvantage, rather than common to both sides - but might an extra round of league matches in midweek have unusual effects on soccer teams too? You might say that teams should be used to this because of European and domestic cup games, but personnel are more readily changed for those competitions and at this stage of the season they offer psychological respite from the rigours of the league (a change is as good as a break, or something). Perhaps this column's mind wanders only because its hopes for Athletic Bilbao and Valencia were dashed on Wednesday night, but perhaps it is something that merits investigation.

Whichever it is, stakes will be reined in a little bit for this weekend's fifth round of La Liga (because, of course, this is a short week too). It will not, however, be put off another bet on Valencia, who play 19th-placed Atlético Madrid at the Mestalla on Saturday night. Since last Thursday Los Che have taken the lead in three matches that they have failed to win. There might be an opportunity to lay off the [1.96] favourites for this weekend's match, then, but the goals market offers a safer bet.

David Villa's level of forward play has been so high for such a long time now that any mention of good form feels superfluous. Has he moved beyond the mortal, fleeting world of form to a Platonic realm of permanent class?

Hmmm, perhaps not, but he should enjoy himself against a defence that has conceded 11 goals in four games this season (with Xerez, that's the worst in the league). Valencia's back four and 'keeper are not much better and have been involved in 16/21 home games under Unai Emery with three goals or more. Over 2.5 Goals is a [1.74] shot; Over 3.5 Goals has paid out in 12/21 and is on offer at [2.62].

The striking trend for lots of goals in matches pitting promoted teams away to the Big Two was mentioned here a week ago, since when Real Madrid's 5-0 win over Xerez has extended the record to 11/13 such games with Over 3.5 Goals. On Saturday Real are at home to Tenerife, who might be building an island fortress for home games but have neither scored in nor earned a point from two away matches so far.

Cristiano Ronaldo provides a good reason to believe Los Merengues will score a few more this weekend. The Portuguese is the first Real player ever to score in all of his first four league matches, and his desire for the Pichichi trophy was revealed to all in his disappointment at being substituted late in the Xerez game. Like Ruud Van Nistelrooy before him, he looks determined to show that Sir Alex Ferguson makes big mistakes in the transfer market and does sell players who have very good campaigns left in them. There are silly prices in the Over 3.5 Goals market for the Tenerife game at the moment, but anything around evens or beyond will be tempting come Saturday.

Four games into their maiden top-flight season and Xerez, you might have gathered, have not made a good impression. Without a goal or a point so far, they travel to Barcelona to play Espanyol on Sunday. What price them failing to score yet again? Well, it's [2.3] for the Espanyol Clean Sheet.

The Catalans have not managed one yet at their new Cornellà-El Prat home, conceding to Málaga and to Real, but they have shown signs of improvement in their last two games and did manage a clean sheet in each of their last five home games of 2008/09.