La Liga Betting: Fernando Llorente and the kings of the long ball

Spanish Football / Jonathan Wilson / 24 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Fernando Llorente is a big, no-nonsense striker in the same mould as previous Athletic Bilbao cult heroes Ismael Urzaiz and Julio Salinas.

"Athletic have been famed for the English-style centre-forwards they have produced: the likes of Telmo Zarra, Julio Salinas and Ismael Urzaiz. Latest in that line is
Fernando Llorente, who has been probably the main reason for Athletic’s impressive start to the season."

Say the words "direct football" and one thinks of the likes of Bolton and Stoke City; say the words "target man" and we think of Emile Heskey, Kevin Davies and Jan Koller. Jonathan Wilson tells us about Spain's answer to both of these...

Next month, as part of its promotion of its new ProCombat range, Nike will publish the results of a survey it has done into the impacts sustained by players across the major three European leagues last season. One of their most striking findings is how the style of a team can be judged according to the distribution of impacts (tackles, duels and blocks) across a side. Put in its simplest terms, the more direct a team is, the greater number of impacts its forwards will sustain compared to its defenders.

The greatest disparity between forwards and defenders in Spain last season was at Numancia, where defenders sustained 9.38 impacts per game and forwards 15.59. The next greatest was at Athletic Bilbao, with 9.43 and 15.08. Given the stereotype of the Spanish game as technical, those are startling figures; to put it in context, if Athletic played in England, they would have the third highest impact rate for forwards, behind only Bolton and Stoke.

Some clubs would shrink from being called direct; Athletic revel in it. The club was founded by shipyard workers from Sunderland, who instilled a style based around getting the ball forward quickly to a big target-man. Over the years, Athletic have been famed for the English-style centre-forwards they have produced: the likes of Telmo
Zarra, Julio Salinas and Ismael Urzaiz. Latest in that line is Fernando Llorente, who has been probably the main reason for Athletic's impressive start to the season, which saw them win their fist three league games, and beat Austria Vienna 3-0 in the Europa League. Llorente scored two in that game, and then terrorised the
Villarreal central defence last week in their 3-2 victory at San Mames. He scored two more, but such was his physical domination that only poor finishing cost him a couple more.

Llorente for a time was something of a figure of fun, a clumsy, bumbling figure who just didn't look like a professional footballer. He showed flashes of technical ability, for sure, but there was a diffidence about him that seemed to stop him ever dominating a game.
And then, to widespread surprise, he received a call-up to Vicente del Bosque's national squad. The joke was that Del Bosque had meant to call up Joseba Llorente of Villarreal. And yet since then, his confidence perhaps bolstered, Llorente has been excellent (he is [32.0] to be top-scorer). There are days, like all the best target-men, when in form he is all but unstoppable. "I don't always believe in myself; there are days when I'm apathetic on the pitch," Llorente said. "But last season, I changed my mentality and showed more fight."

Urzaiz, who knows about these things, agrees that he has been imposing himself more since he got the international call-up, using his body better, leaning into defenders. His self-belief seems to have spread through the rest of the team; against Villarreal there was an awesomeness about them, a power that wasn't really reflected in the
3-2 scoreline. A 1-0 defeat at Tenerife last night has perhaps put their expectations into perspective but comfortable mid-table looks a modest ambition.

Athletic's meeting with Sevilla at the weekend looks crucial (they are [3.0] to win; their opponents 2.52). Their coach Joaquin Caparros, aware of the limitations of a squad that many predicted would be battling relegation this season, has been determinedly keeping feet on the ground, but he took them to the Cup final last season (hence their European participatation) and if they could beat a side expected to finish in the top four, it really could suggest they are ready to compete for Europa League qualification (they are [50.0] to win this season's competition].

That said, their early start in European competition - they had to beat Tromso and Young Boys to reach the group stage - has seemingly given them an advantage in that theyr have hit their rhythm while other sides are still sputtering into gear, and it may be that that starts to count against them towards the end of the season. For the moment, though, they are a dangerous wild card, ready to expose any side that doesn't fancy a aerial bombardment.