La Liga Betting: Expect goals as swashbuckling Barca head to Sevilla.

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 27 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Without doubt Barcelona are playing the best football around at the moment and their trip to Sevilla is certainly one to make the mouth water. Tobias Gourlay eagerly looks forward to another exciting week in La Liga....

A fortnight ago, Barcelona midfielder Xavi Hernandez pondered the mutual exclusivity of success at the top-end of Spanish football: if Barca are going well, then Madrid are in crisis, and vice versa.

With Madrid winning last weekend and Barca being held to a draw by Getafe, it seems Xavi's point is a good one. Pep Guardiola has spent this week fielding questions about whether his side, far from being a good match for Johan Cruyff's Dream Team, suffer from 'Messi-dependencia', the condition of being unduly reliant on the Argentine wide-man who missed the Getafe match. Meanwhile, clean sheets against Recreativo and BATE Borisov seem to have persuaded Madrid's top brass that their defence is now so good they could afford to offload Sergio Ramos to Milan, in return for a striker, Alexandre Pato.

Longer-term concerns about whether Messi, who was diagnosed with a growth hormone deficiency as a child, can deal with the physical demands of regular football will ensure that the debate about his importance to Barca does not go away any time soon. He was withdrawn early from the Catalans' midweek Champions League game--they were 3-0 up at the time--but is widely expected to play against Sevilla, which is reassuring for those who fancy a few goals in the Sanchez Pizjuan on Saturday night. The hosts played out a wretched 0-0 draw with Valencia last weekend, but Guardiola will not settle for a point in the way that Unai Emery's Los Che did.

Sevilla have an excellent record at home to the Big Two (W5-D1-L0 since the start of previous boss Juande Ramos's reign), although they have managed only one clean sheet in this time. Barca have scored 15 times in their last five away games, all of which they have won. The result on Saturday night is in some doubt, but it is reasonable to suppose that the visitors will score. Sevilla, then, will have to come out and play at some point, which makes Over 2.5 Goals attractive at [1.95].

There are two other matches this week that look set up to be shootouts. First, there is Valencia's clash with Betis at the Mestalla. Betis have won three in a row on the road, scoring eight goals in the process. Sergio Garcia was mentioned here last week, but summer signing Achille Emana is also making waves; the Cameroon international has scored in each of Betis's last three games. At the back, the Verdiblancos are far from watertight and, despite losing recently to Sporting Gijon and Racing Santander, Valencia have scored 12 times in their last four home games. Over 2.5 Goals should come out to around [1.75] by kick-off, and that would represent a value bet.

Longer odds are available for a similar outcome to Athletico Madrid's game with Racing Santander ([1.95]), but a similarly strong case can be made. Diego Forlan's return to fitness and good form--he has seven goals in seven domestic matches this term--is a boon to a team whose title challenge is probably already over. Racing, meanwhile, have found the back of the net in all bar one of their away games so far, but their own onion bag has been easily located by recent opponents; they have conceded seven times in their last three games on the road.

On a different tack, there is something else to bear in mind about Atleti: 15 of their last 16 home games have had the same result at half time and full time. So, if you think they are going to win ([1.62]), why not take the longer odds on the double result ([2.42])? And, if they are not ahead at the break, then laying them would be the thing to do.