La Liga Betting: "El Clasico" Barcelona v Real Madrid

Spanish Football / Dan Fitch / 12 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

It's been a normal week by Real Madrid's standards: Schuster's sacking and Ramos' arrival took place in between a home league defeat at the weekend and a midweek Champions League win. Next up Barca, says Dan Fitch.

By rights, this article should be pretty even-handed in the amount of coverage that I give to both Barcelona and Real Madrid, as I preview their clash in El Clasico on Saturday. Instead, like a spoilt little girl, playing up for attention at someone else's birthday party, Real have managed to steal the spotlight away from Barca.

It's been just another average week for Real's increasingly dysfunctional family. When I previewed their match with Getafe last week, I predicted that even if Real lost, it would be unlikely that Bernd Schuster would be replaced.

With a Champions League game coming up, followed by the crunch match with Barcelona, I couldn't imagine Real Madrid would want to make changes. Luckily I inserted a proviso in brackets, stating that as this was Real Madrid, logic would not necessarily be applied to the situation.

What done for Schuster in the end was his admission that his team had no chance of winning at Camp Nou. For a posturing, cocksure side like Real Madrid, such feeble talk was never going to wash. Schuster got the chop and Juande Ramos was brought in until the end of the season.

The Spanish press have subsequently gone to town on Madrid for the appointment of Ramos and who can blame them? It is rare that a coach masterminds a home defeat to Hull City in October, only to end the season with arguably the biggest job in club football.

Optimists will point to Ramos' success at Sevilla, rather than his failings at Tottenham. It was Ramos' inability to communicate with his players that lost him the respect of the dressing room at Spurs, but a translator will not be required in Madrid.

Ramos' reign begun in solid fashion, with a 3-0 victory over Zenit St Petersburg, that saw Real qualify from their group in second place. The night before, Barcelona has been defeated 3-2 at home by Shakhtar Donetsk, though not too much should be read into this result. Having already qualified, Barca fielded a young side, ensuring that most of their first team would be fresh for El Clasico.

While Real Madrid were losing to Getafe last weekend and facing up to the reality of sacking their coach, Barcelona were merrily thrashing third placed Valencia 4-0. The rout included a hat-trick from Thierry Henry, who has now scored a total of 7 league goals, having generally played as a left winger this season.

The Betfair first goalscorer market will be up near to kick off. It can be expected that Henry will be available at around [7.0], with Eto'o the likely favourite at around the [5.5] mark. For Real, their talisman Raul has been in good form of late and will be available at around [10.0].

Barcelona have now scored a massive 44 goals from their 14 La Liga appearances. Even though most teams they encounter are putting 10 men behind the ball, they are simply blowing them away. Real Madrid's pride will prevent them adopting similarly defensive tactics, meaning that we might have an end-to-end goalfest on our hands.

7 out of the last 10 encounters between the two sides have broken 2.5 goals. Madrid's problems this season have come because of their inability to defend, rather than any drought in front of goal. Over 2.5 goals is available at [1.57], with over 3.5 at [2.38].

In a match with as much riding on it as this, it's always worth looking at the bookings and sending off markets. There has been a player sent off in 2 out of the last 3 games between the clubs, making the [2.66] available for a red card this time round, an attractive price. A bet of 9 points and above would seem a safe bet in the bookings odds, with the market likely to looking healthy on the day of the game.

Madrid will definitely be without Van Nistlerooy, Diarra, De La Red, Heinze, Marcelo, Pepe and Torres, while Sneijder is a doubt. Looking at that injury list, you can't help but feel that Schuster had a point. Barcelona will probably be without Milito and Iniesta, though Eto'o should return from injury.

Barcelona are the [1.63] favourites, with the draw at [4.3] and Real Madrid at [6.2]. The appointment of a new coach normally ensures a resurgence of form, but I think that Guardiola's side are playing too well to not win. Barca have scored early in many of their matches this season and the half time/full time double for the home team can be backed at [2.44]. In the correct score betting, I'd go with 3-1 at [13], 3-2 at [29] and the 2-2 draw at [20].